Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 18 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, sitting at the floor after a volatile overnight session that saw prices swing from $91.57/MWh at Friday's evening peak down to lows of -$135/MWh forecast into the early hours. Demand has climbed to 4,428 MW from an overnight trough near 3,090 MW, tracking the typical Saturday morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours the market has spent extended periods in negative territory — largely between midnight and 06:00 AEST — reflecting strong wind output outpacing demand during low-load overnight conditions.
Generation mix is currently wind-dominated: wind is contributing 3,305 MW, brown coal 2,073 MW, hydro 30 MW, battery 2.8 MW and solar just 4 MW (pre-dawn, negligible irradiance yet). Gas plant (both OCGT and CCGT) is sitting idle at zero output. This mix puts renewable penetration at 61.7% and carbon intensity at 0.467 tCO2/MWh, continuing a steady overnight decline from 0.71 tCO2/MWh at Thursday evening's peak as wind generation built through the night. The pattern reflects Victoria's typical overnight profile — brown coal running as baseload while wind covers the bulk of variable demand.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying negative through the morning trough, with a low of -$135/MWh expected around 13:30 AEST, before a sharp rebound to $80.75/MWh forecast at 19:00 AEST as evening demand builds and solar tapers off. Prices are then expected to ease back toward flat/negative territory by late evening. For flexible load and battery operators, the five identified low-price windows between 02:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow (averaging -$68 to -$106/MWh) offer the strongest charging opportunities, each delivering $148-187/MWh in savings versus peak pricing.
On notices, an inter-regional transfer limit variation is active following a short-notice outage of the Hazelwood to South Morang No.2 500kV line at 20:50 AEST last night, invoking constraint set V-HWSM affecting VIC1-NSW1 and Basslink flows — worth monitoring for any knock-on congestion effects on interconnector pricing today. No VIC-specific generation directions or interventions are in force, though SA's ongoing voltage-related intervention events (AGL Torrens Island directions) may indirectly affect Heywood interconnector flows. Weather today points to light wind (16 km/h current, easing) and moderate solar potential (20.5% average), suggesting today's renewable contribution will likely soften slightly through midday before wind conditions improve again tomorrow.