Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 17 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $88.02/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,173 MW. This follows an overnight session that spent much of the early hours in negative territory — prices bottomed near -$8/MWh between 15:00 and 16:00 AEST as low demand (sub-4,000 MW) met strong wind output — before climbing sharply through the morning peak, touching an intraday high of $137.68/MWh at 07:45 AEST as demand ramped past 6,400 MW. The current price is broadly in line with the same time yesterday ($90.50/MWh), suggesting a stable day-on-day pattern despite the overnight volatility.
Generation mix is currently led by brown coal at 3,733.72 MW (60% of the visible mix), with wind contributing 2,377.33 MW, battery storage at 193.27 MW, hydro at 29.31 MW, and solar minimal at 7.9 MW given the early hour and 84% cloud cover. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is sitting at zero MW currently. Renewable penetration reads 41.12%, up sharply from the 13-15% range seen around midday yesterday when brown coal dominated dispatch — reflecting the strong overnight wind resource now easing into the morning ramp. Carbon intensity is 0.7183 tCO2/MWh, its lowest point in the past 24 hours, down from a peak of 1.0599 tCO2/MWh at 23:00 AEST yesterday when renewable output dropped to just 6.39%.
Predispatch forecasts show prices falling away sharply through the day: $45.18/MWh by 07:00 AEST, turning negative by 09:00 AEST (-$7.02/MWh), and dropping as low as -$68.41/MWh around 14:00 AEST as forecast demand troughs align with strong solar and wind availability. Prices are expected to stay near zero or negative through the afternoon before a partial recovery toward the evening, with predispatch showing $0.01/MWh out to 18:00 AEST target time — consistent with today's weak solar potential (12.2 average) offset by moderate wind (6.1 average) and mild temperatures (7.5–22.1°C) reducing heating and cooling demand. Load-shifting windows are attractive between 11:00 and 16:00 AEST, with the deepest opportunity around 14:00–15:00 AEST at -$66.48/MWh, saving approximately $112/MWh versus peak pricing.
No VIC-specific market interventions are active today. Notices affecting the broader NEM are concentrated in SA, where AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention for voltage support from 23:00 AEST tonight, continuing a pattern of recurring SA voltage directions to Torrens Island over the past week. A VIC-related notice from 11 September regarding a reclassified contingency on the South Morang–Dederang line has since been cancelled, and the Rowville–South Morang No. 3 500kV line returned to service following a planned outage on 16 September. No transmission constraints are currently reported within Victoria.