Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 14 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $71.02/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking above the overnight trough but consistent with the region's typical morning demand ramp. Demand has climbed to 5,318 MW, up from a low of around 4,140 MW near 3:30pm AEST yesterday afternoon. Prices over the past 24 hours have swung widely — from a floor near $0/MWh during the 15:00-19:00 AEST low-demand window down to spikes above $150/MWh during the evening peak around 22:15 AEST — reflecting the volatility typical of a mixed thermal-renewable grid responding to solar output tapering and evening demand build.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 3,688 MW, with wind contributing 2,277 MW, battery storage at 51 MW, hydro at 6 MW, and solar at just 4 MW given the early hour and cloud cover reducing output. Gas units (both OCGT and CCGT) are sitting idle at 0 MW, indicating thermal peaking capacity is not currently required. Renewable penetration is at 38.79%, up from lows near 28% overnight, and carbon intensity sits at 0.7467 tCO2/MWh — improving from levels above 0.85 tCO2/MWh recorded around midnight as wind generation picked up through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price collapse through the middle of today, with forecast RRP falling to $0/MWh by 22:00 AEST and turning negative from 22:30 AEST, reaching lows near -$50/MWh in the early hours of tomorrow (02:00-05:30 AEST) before recovering. This aligns with load-shifting windows identified between 02:00-07:00 AEST tomorrow, each offering savings of $136-143/MWh versus peak pricing, with zero carbon intensity forecast during those hours. Prices are then expected to rebound sharply from 08:00 AEST tomorrow, climbing back to the $65-95/MWh range through the day as demand returns.
On market notices, Victoria has no region-specific interventions active today, though several notices affecting neighbouring South Australia — including ongoing AEMO directions to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island unit for voltage control, and a foreseeable intervention flagged for SA from 09:30 AEST tomorrow — are relevant given interconnector exposure. A reclassification of a non-credible contingency event on the South Morang to Dederang 330kV line in VIC was cancelled on 11 September, returning that risk to standard classification. No active constraints are currently affecting VIC-NSW or VIC-SA settlement residues.