Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$5.00/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 4,247 MW — a continuation of the negative pricing that has held through most of the overnight period since around 18:00 AEST last night. This is a sharp contrast to yesterday evening's peak, when prices ran between $80-91/MWh during the 16:30-18:00 AEST demand peak (5,300-5,700 MW). The last 24 hours have shown the typical bimodal pattern: a steep morning ramp from -$8/MWh at 04:00 AEST up to a $91.31/MWh high around 17:25 AEST, tracking the demand build to an evening peak near 5,689 MW, before easing back into negative territory overnight as demand fell below 4,000 MW.
Generation mix is currently wind-led at 3,014 MW, followed by brown coal at 2,144 MW. Solar is negligible at 6.6 MW (pre-dawn), hydro contributes 6.2 MW, and battery output sits at 5.75 MW. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is at zero. This mix gives a renewable penetration of 58.59% and carbon intensity of 0.505 tCO2/MWh — both improved from 24 hours ago, when renewable share was just 17.57% and intensity was 0.992 tCO2/MWh during a low-wind, coal-heavy overnight period. Today's stronger wind output is doing the work: intensity has trended down steadily from a peak of 0.809 tCO2/MWh around 07:00 AEST as wind generation built through the morning and afternoon.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing overnight, deepening to -$59 to -$68/MWh between 01:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow as demand troughs and wind persists, before a sharp reversal from 08:30 AEST as forecast prices jump to $36/MWh then hold in the $60-69/MWh band through the morning and into the afternoon peak. Traders should note the width of this swing — over $130/MWh trough-to-peak — driven by the low overnight demand and strong wind supply easing sharply once solar drops off pre-dawn. Today's weather outlook shows moderate wind potential (10.9%) and modest solar potential (4.2%) under 75% cloud cover, with a top of 23.2°C, suggesting renewable output should remain supportive through the day without a strong solar contribution.
On market notices, the VIC-to-SA negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) was active intermittently through 12 September but was cancelled as of 16:00 AEST yesterday — worth watching if it recurs given today's negative pricing conditions. Basslink's control issue from 11 September has been resolved, with controls restored and the constraint set revoked. No VIC-specific intervention events or directions are currently active; the recent AEMO interventions and voltage-related directions are confined to SA. The VIC network element reclassification (South Morang to Dederang line) that was flagged as a credible contingency on 11 September was reverted the same day, so no residual constraint impact for VIC today.