Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $13/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, a sharp reversal from the extreme volatility seen through yesterday evening and this morning's peak. Prices spiked to $165.53/MWh at 5:30pm AEST yesterday and held in the $100-150/MWh band through the morning demand ramp, before collapsing into negative territory from roughly 3:30am to 5:00am AEST (troughing at -$1.08/MWh) as wind output surged and overnight demand fell below 3,300 MW. Demand has since recovered to 5,711 MW as the morning ramp gets underway.
Generation mix is currently running 51.7% renewable, with wind the dominant source at 3,055 MW, brown coal contributing 2,982 MW, batteries at 102 MW, and hydro at 36 MW. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) sits at zero, with solar also at zero given the pre-dawn timing of this snapshot. Carbon intensity reads 0.5892 tCO2/MWh, down materially from the 0.83-0.89 tCO2/MWh range that persisted overnight when wind output was lower relative to coal — illustrating how quickly Victoria's carbon intensity tracks wind availability. Renewable penetration has climbed from around 24% at 7:00am yesterday to the current 51.7% as wind generation ramped through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing through the morning, with the 7:00-7:30am AEST window forecast at -$5 to -$6.30/MWh and troughs as low as -$44.84/MWh expected around 3:00pm AEST (targeting 2026-09-09T05:00 UTC), consistent with strong wind forecast at 16.7% average potential and moderate cloud cover of 74% limiting solar offset today. Prices are then forecast to snap sharply higher into the evening peak, reaching $68-75/MWh through the 6:00-7:00pm AEST window as wind potential eases. Load-shifting windows show consistent negative pricing from 2:00am-6:00am AEST tomorrow, with savings up to $161 vs peak — relevant for any flexible load or battery charging strategies.
On notices, AEMO cancelled the forecast LOR1 (Lack of Reserve) condition for VIC1 that had applied for 7:00-7:30am on 8 September, with capacity reserves recovering above the 1,155 MW requirement. A non-conformance was recorded for CROWLWF1 (22 MW) on 5-6 September under constraint NC-V_CROWLWF1, and GPWFWST1 (12 MW) on 4 September, both since resolved. No active VIC1 network constraints or interconnector limitations are currently flagged; SA remains the focus of ongoing AEMO intervention directions relating to voltage support at Torrens Island, with no direct VIC1 impact noted.