Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 4 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$5.09/MWh at 6:25am AEST, holding in negative territory for the eighteenth consecutive hour after peaking at $252.68/MWh during Thursday evening's demand ramp. Demand is currently 4,547 MW, well down from the 6,000-6,900 MW band seen during Thursday's evening peak. The negative pricing reflects strong wind output overnight combined with soft overnight demand — a pattern that has persisted since prices crossed below zero around 11:35pm Thursday and has barely lifted since.
Generation mix is currently wind-led: wind is contributing 3,264 MW, brown coal 2,791 MW, hydro 5.9 MW, and battery and gas sitting near zero. Renewable penetration reads 53.95%, consistent with the 50-64% range Victoria has tracked through the day, peaking near 64% around 5am when wind potential was highest. Carbon intensity is 0.5618 tCO2/MWh, down from Thursday evening's 0.78-0.80 tCO2/MWh range as wind generation displaced thermal output overnight. Current weather shows wind speed at 27.2 km/h with 100% cloud cover, supporting continued wind contribution but with zero solar potential until sunrise.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying negative through the morning, with the trough expected around 4:30pm AEST at -$50.11/MWh before gradually recovering. Prices are forecast to stay sub-zero or near-zero through until around 5pm, then lift to $8.94/MWh by 7pm and $10.50/MWh by 7:30pm as evening demand builds. Load-shifting windows show best value between 1am and 6am, with the 4-5am window offering -$42.80/MWh average price and $53.30/MWh saving versus peak — worth flagging for any flexible load operations planning ahead of Saturday's low-demand period.
On notices: AEMO briefly reclassified a non-credible contingency event on the Yallourn-Rowville 220 kV lines due to lightning at 6:08pm, then cancelled the reclassification at 6:09pm once lightning activity cleared — no ongoing constraint impact. A non-conformance notice was issued for unit GPWFWST1 (12 MW) for the period 3:45pm-5:55pm Thursday. Separately, a non-credible contingency event tripped the Newport No.1 220 kV bus at 2:48pm Thursday, offloading the Newport-Brooklyn line; AEMO confirmed no load shedding occurred and will not reclassify. No active market interventions are currently in place for VIC1.