A 0–100 real-time index derived from AEMO's predispatch sensitivity scenarios — the data almost no buyer or trader currently reads.
Every five minutes, AEMO publishes predispatch sensitivity scenarios alongside its base price forecast. These scenarios model how the dispatch price would change under alternative demand and generation conditions. The information is public, but the files are complex and largely unread outside of advanced trading desks.
gridIQ parses every sensitivity scenario at every dispatch interval and compresses the spread into a single number: the Price Fragility Score, expressed from 0 to 100. A score near zero indicates a stable, well-supplied interval where a small demand or generation surprise would have limited price impact. A score near 100 indicates structural exposure — the same surprise would produce a very large price swing.
The score does not predict spikes. It identifies which intervals are fragile — and in practice, the largest NEM price events almost always occur when fragility has been elevated for several consecutive intervals.
AEMO publishes sensitivity scenarios for every dispatch interval — alternative price outcomes under different demand and supply conditions. Almost no buyer or trader currently reads these files. gridIQ parses them continuously and collapses the scenario spread into a single index.
The score refreshes at every NEM dispatch interval. A fragility score of 80+ at 16:00 AEST does not mean a spike is certain — it means the interval is structurally exposed and a small demand or generation surprise would produce a large price move.
Price fragility varies significantly across regions due to interconnector limits, local generation mix, and demand concentration. gridIQ shows the score per region so you can identify where exposure is highest at any given interval.
Ask Watt for the current fragility score, recent high-fragility events, or a comparison across regions. Watt can also explain the structural conditions driving the score at any given interval.
Large energy buyers use the score to time interruptible load operations — curtailing flexible demand before high-fragility intervals rather than reacting after a spike arrives on the invoice.
Trading desks use fragility to frame position risk ahead of morning and evening peaks. A high score does not trigger an automatic action — it prompts closer attention to the sensitivity scenario detail before a commitment is made.
Renewable developers use it to understand which dispatch windows carry the most revenue uncertainty and to assess whether a fixed-price structure is appropriately priced relative to the volatility exposure.
A high score (70+) means the dispatch interval is structurally exposed to a sudden price move. The sensitivity scenarios AEMO publishes show that a relatively small change in demand or generation would produce a price outcome far from the base forecast. It is an early-warning signal, not a prediction.
Pre-dispatch forecasts show AEMO's base-case expected price. The Price Fragility Score measures the spread of outcomes around that base — how wide the distribution is. A low forecast price can still have high fragility if the sensitivity scenarios show a wide range of possible outcomes.
The Price Fragility Score is available on Professional and above. It is also accessible to Watt AI on Professional plans.
The Price Fragility Score is included in every Professional, PPA Pro, and Enterprise subscription. Start a 21-day trial — no credit card required.