Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 2 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $10.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well below the volatile swings seen through yesterday's evening peak, when prices spiked to $107.48/MWh around 21:10 AEST on tightening evening demand. Overnight prices spent several hours in negative territory (as low as -$7.11/MWh forecast for 13:00-13:30 AEST today), reflecting strong wind output and soft overnight demand near 3,800-4,000 MW. Demand has since climbed back to 5,707 MW as the morning ramp gets underway.
The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is wind-dominated: wind is contributing 3,591 MW, brown coal 2,563 MW, gas (OCGT) 75 MW, and hydro just 0.8 MW, with solar and batteries at zero ahead of sunrise. This puts renewable penetration at 57.7%, continuing a strong run that saw renewables above 50% for most of yesterday afternoon and evening as wind generation held firm. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.510 tCO2/MWh, down sharply from 0.81-0.86 tCO2/MWh seen overnight when brown coal carried a larger share of load — the inverse relationship between wind output and carbon intensity is clear across the past 24 hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the day. Prices are forecast to climb from current levels through the morning, hitting $110-112/MWh by 08:00-08:30 AEST, then surging to a peak of $202.18/MWh around 12:00 AEST, before easing to $95-127/MWh through the afternoon and settling near $84/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This trajectory reflects tightening supply margins as demand builds into midday, with today's weather outlook showing modest solar potential (1.7 average) and wind potential (3.1 average) — both softer than the 23.7 wind potential forecast for Friday, suggesting today's renewable contribution may taper from current highs as the day progresses.
No active market notices directly constrain Victorian generation today. The most recent VIC-specific items are a South Morang-Sydenham 500kV line outage that was completed and returned to service on 25 August, and lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Eildon-Mt Beauty 220kV lines from the same period — both resolved. AEMO's MSATS system maintenance window (13:00-17:00 AEST today) and the MarketNet security patching (10:00-14:00 AEST) are administrative and not expected to affect dispatch. Traders should note the pronounced negative-to-$200+ price swing forecast intraday, consistent with current low-carbon, wind-heavy conditions giving way to tighter midday balancing.