Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 29 August 2026
**Victoria spot price sits at $73.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST**, tracking well below the overnight peak of $117.99/MWh recorded around 06:45 AEST yesterday evening, and consistent with a broader 24-hour range that swung from -$33.92/MWh in the overnight trough (15:05 AEST equivalent) to highs near $100/MWh through the morning demand ramp. Demand currently reads 4,980 MW, off the intraday peak of over 6,500 MW recorded around 18:35-19:00 AEST yesterday. The negative pricing overnight (multiple intervals between -$3.50 and -$33.92/MWh from roughly 09:10 to 15:55 AEST) reflects typical minimum demand conditions when wind and baseload brown coal output exceeds operational demand.
**Generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,385 MW**, comprising the large majority of the current 5,158 MW total scheduled output, with wind contributing 628 MW, battery storage delivering 104 MW (net discharge), hydro adding 40 MW, and negligible gas (0.4 MW OCGT, zero CCGT). Solar output is at zero, consistent with the current 20:30 AEST settlement window occurring after sunset. Renewable penetration sits at 14.97%, which is on the lower end of today's range — overnight renewable share peaked near 39% around 12:30 AEST (2:30am local) when wind generation was stronger relative to demand, before declining steadily through the day as wind eased and coal held constant output.
**Carbon intensity reads 1.0374 tCO2/MWh currently**, up from an overnight low of 0.7397 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with the renewable penetration curve. Grid stress scoring sits at 60.6 and carbon intensity scoring at 61.4 on gridIQ's composite scale, reflecting the elevated coal-dominant mix typical of low-wind evening conditions in Victoria.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing over the next few hours — $75.01/MWh at 07:00 AEST, dropping to $25.83/MWh by 08:00 AEST and turning negative from 10:00 AEST (-$1.14/MWh) through to the early morning trough around 13:00-14:00 AEST (-$8.01/MWh), before a sharp rebound from 17:00 AEST (26.80/MWh) into a strong morning peak — $105-114/MWh forecast between 18:00 and 21:00 AEST tomorrow as demand ramps and solar has yet to contribute meaningfully (weather outlook shows only 5.6% average solar potential today, 74% cloud cover). Traders should note the five identified low-price load-shifting windows between 11:00 and 16:00 AEST, averaging -$4.74 to -$8.00/MWh, offering up to $122/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load.
On notices, no VIC-specific interventions are currently active — recent VIC entries relate to cancelled non-credible contingency reclassifications on the Eildon-Mt Beauty 220kV lines (lightning-related, resolved) and a completed Hazelwood PS bus tie outage. The active market intervention today concerns SA region voltage support (AGL Torrens Island direction, effective 09:00-13:00 AEST), with no direct VIC impact expected, though inter-regional flows on VIC-NSW and VIC-SA interconnectors may see minor secondary effects from SA system strength constraints.