Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 27 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $89.97/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, down sharply from yesterday evening's peak of $299.44/MWh recorded around 06:40 AEST during the overnight demand ramp. Prices have been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from a low of -$1.17/MWh in the pre-dawn trough (around 15:10 AEST equivalent overnight) up to the high-$200s during the evening peak, before easing back into double digits overnight and now stabilising near $90/MWh as morning demand builds. Total demand currently reads 6,186 MW, climbing from an overnight low near 3,850 MW.
Generation mix at the 06:00 AEST interval shows brown coal dominant at 4,367 MW, wind contributing 1,434 MW, battery output at 226 MW, gas (OCGT) at 174 MW, and hydro at 51 MW. Solar is at zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 27.4%, in line with the overnight range of 25-37% as wind generation fluctuated. Carbon intensity reads 0.870 tCO2/MWh, near the upper end of the past day's 0.74-0.96 tCO2/MWh range — intensity typically rises through morning and evening peaks as coal and gas cover demand ramps, and eases around midday as renewable share increases.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further easing through the morning: $93.87/MWh by 07:00 AEST, dropping to $75.97/MWh by 08:00 and collapsing to $24.96/MWh by 09:00 as overnight demand troughs. Prices are forecast to bottom out near $10.50/MWh from 10:00 AEST through to 16:00 AEST, before recovering into the morning peak — climbing to $124.10/MWh by 18:00 AEST and peaking near $140/MWh around 19:30 AEST as solar generation fades and evening demand builds. Weather today is cool and overcast (8.1°C, 0% cloud cover currently easing to 75% average cloud cover), with low solar potential (2.9) and negligible wind potential (0.4) forecast — conditions that will likely keep renewable contribution modest and lean on coal and gas through the day.
On notices, VIC-specific items are limited to historical contingency reclassifications on the Eildon–Mt Beauty 220kV lines (lightning-related, since cancelled) and a completed outage return on the South Morang–Sydenham 500kV interconnector. No active VIC-region market interventions or directions are in place. South Australia remains the focus of ongoing AEMO attention, with a foreseeable intervention flagged for voltage support from 10:30 AEST today and a cancelled minimum system load event for 31 August — worth monitoring given VIC-SA interconnector flows, though no direct VIC constraint impact is currently reported.