Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 24 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $100.38/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of a volatile overnight range that swung from a low of $4.42/MWh around 12:00 AEST yesterday to an intraday peak of $140.66/MWh in the evening ramp. Demand has climbed to 6,068 MW and continues rising into the morning peak, up from an overnight trough near 4,480 MW. Predispatch signals further tightening ahead, with forecasts showing $135.48/MWh by 08:00 AEST and a sharp spike to $211.48/MWh forecast for the 08:30-09:00 AEST window before easing back through the day to the $75-90/MWh band by early afternoon.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,307 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 321 MW, wind at 334 MW, and hydro a modest 22 MW. Solar and battery are both sitting at 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and heavy cloud cover (100%) currently blanketing the region. Renewable penetration has fallen to 7.14%, well down from the 38-41% band seen overnight when wind generation was stronger, reflecting the combination of low wind output and no solar contribution at this hour.
Carbon intensity has risen to 1.0961 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.7080 tCO2/MWh around 23:00 AEST yesterday, tracking inversely with the renewable share as brown coal fills the generation gap. This is among the higher readings in the past 24 hours, alongside yesterday afternoon's peak of 1.134 tCO2/MWh during a similar low-wind, cloud-covered period. Today's weather outlook shows solar potential improving only modestly to an average of 4.5% for the day, with wind potential remaining weak at 1.2%, suggesting renewable contribution will stay constrained through most of today's trading.
No active market notices are specific to Victoria today beyond a non-conformance declaration for unit NUMURSF1 on 23 August, since resolved, and a historical negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC-SA interconnector that ceased operating on 19 August. Recent intervention activity has centred on the SA region for voltage control rather than Victoria directly. Traders should note the load-shifting windows identified for early tomorrow morning (01:00-06:30 AEST), with forecast prices as low as $64-79/MWh offering the best demand-response opportunities relative to today's peak pricing.