Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 22 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $115/MWh at 6:30pm AEST, easing from a volatile afternoon that peaked at $170/MWh around 8:00am and held in the $100-130/MWh band through the middle of the day. Demand is at 5,372 MW, down from an intraday high near 6,750 MW in the late morning. Overnight prices were markedly softer, spending several hours in negative territory (as low as -$7.51/MWh between 1:30pm and 2pm AEST) as low demand met continued brown coal baseload output — a reminder of how quickly this region flips from scarcity pricing to negative pricing depending on the demand and renewables balance.
Generation mix is currently dominated by brown coal at 3,856 MW, roughly 87% of the 4,410 MW total shown in the latest snapshot. Gas OCGT contributes 135 MW, hydro 205 MW, wind 122 MW, and batteries 94 MW, with solar at zero given the 8:00pm interval. Renewable penetration has fallen sharply through the day, from a high of 50.8% overnight (around 3:00am) down to 9.5% at the most recent reading, tracking the loss of solar generation as the sun set and softer wind conditions across the day. Carbon intensity has correspondingly climbed from a low of 0.60 tCO2/MWh overnight to 1.09 tCO2/MWh currently, near the day's peak of 1.14 tCO2/MWh recorded around 7:30pm.
Predispatch forecasts point to easing prices through the evening peak, with 7:00pm and 7:30pm intervals forecast at $101.77/MWh and $83.63/MWh respectively, dropping into single digits by 11:00pm and turning negative overnight — troughing around -$6.50/MWh near 1:00pm tomorrow (23 August). A renewed morning price ramp is forecast from 4:30am, climbing to a forecast peak near $95/MWh around 6:30am as demand builds ahead of sunrise. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows modest solar potential (8.9 average) and low wind (1.0 average) under 32% cloud cover, suggesting a similar generation mix pattern to today is likely.
No VIC1-specific market interventions or directions are active today. Notices affecting the broader network include a resolved short-notice outage on the Hazelwood PS 4-6 bus tie 220kV (20 August) and a since-cancelled reclassification of the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220kV lines as credible contingencies due to lightning (19 August), both now closed out. Active intervention activity is concentrated in South Australia, with AEMO flagging a foreseeable voltage-related intervention from 10:30am tomorrow — worth monitoring given SA's interconnection with Victoria and potential flow-on effects to Victorian interconnector constraints.