Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 19 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $80.67/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking near the top of a volatile overnight-to-morning range that swung from -$35.70/MWh during Tuesday's overnight demand trough to a peak of $92.21/MWh forecast for the 09:00 interval. Demand currently reads 5,917 MW, well below the 7,400+ MW seen during yesterday's morning peak. Overnight prices spent extended periods below $15/MWh and briefly negative between 21:40-05:25 AEST as wind output and low demand combined, before the morning ramp pushed prices back into the $55-90/MWh band through the 07:00-11:00 window.
Generation mix at 20:30 UTC (06:30 AEST) shows brown coal dominating at 3,898 MW, wind contributing 1,367 MW, batteries at 366 MW, gas OCGT at 134 MW, and hydro at 34 MW. Solar sits at 0 MW given the early hour and 87% cloud cover. This mix puts renewable penetration at 30.47%, down sharply from the 46-53% range sustained overnight when wind generation was higher and coal's share proportionally lower. Carbon intensity has risen to 0.8351 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low near 0.57 tCO2/MWh — the steepest increase came through the 16:00-20:00 AEST window as renewable share fell from 38% to 28%, before a small wind-driven recovery to 30.47% in the latest interval.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trend through the morning, with prices climbing to $86-90/MWh across the 08:00-10:30 AEST window before easing to $80.67/MWh by midday and softening further to the $34-58/MWh range by mid-afternoon. Overnight tonight is forecast to revisit low and negative prices again, with the 02:30-05:00 AEST window showing forecast prices between -$0.05/MWh and $0.02/MWh, consistent with typical minimum-demand wind absorption. Traders should note the $92.21/MWh peak forecast for 09:00 AEST as the session's likely high point.
On notices, AEMO briefly reclassified a credible contingency event for the Eildon PS–Mt Beauty 220 kV double-circuit lines due to lightning activity, but this was cancelled at 02:34 AEST with no constraint impact. A negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC-SA interconnector (NRM_VIC1_SA1) operated from 17:05 to 18:00 AEST yesterday before being ceased by AEMO. Basslink remains constrained under I-VT_000 following a technical limitation reached last week — worth monitoring for any Tasmanian import/export flow impacts today. No non-conformance or intervention events are currently active in VIC1.