Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $41.22/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, well below the volatile evening peak seen 24 hours ago when prices spiked above $120/MWh. Overnight prices collapsed into negative territory, bottoming near -$8.84/MWh around 11:00-12:00 AEST as demand fell below 3,500 MW, before climbing back through single figures and into the $50-90/MWh band during this morning's demand ramp. Current demand reads 5,866 MW, tracking in line with typical Monday morning build.
Generation mix is currently led by brown coal at 4,201 MW, with wind contributing 2,525 MW, hydro at 51 MW, battery output at 10 MW, and negligible gas (0.4 MW OCGT, zero CCGT). Solar is at zero given the pre-dawn interval. Renewable penetration sits at 38.1%, easing back from an overnight peak above 45% as wind generation moderates and coal ramps to meet the morning load increase. Carbon intensity reads 0.7551 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.6597 tCO2/MWh recorded around 04:00 AEST, tracking the inverse relationship with renewable share typical of VIC1's diurnal pattern.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the morning, with forecast RRP climbing to $78.85/MWh by 07:00 AEST and peaking near $105-110/MWh between 08:30 and 09:30 AEST as demand and reduced wind output tighten the supply-demand balance. Prices are then forecast to ease through the afternoon, dropping to the $35-55/MWh range by early afternoon and falling further to $13-19/MWh by late afternoon as demand tapers. Weather data shows minimal solar potential today (0.7% average) under 95% cloud cover, with wind potential also subdued at 2.9%, reinforcing thermal generation's role in meeting today's peak.
On notices, an active AEMO non-conformance declaration applies to unit NUMURSF1 in VIC1 for the 12:30-13:15 AEST window on 23 August, tied to constraint NC-V_NUMURSF1 — relevant for participants tracking dispatch reliability at that node. A prior VIC1 credible contingency reclassification for the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220kV lines (lightning-related) was cancelled on 20 August and remains resolved. No active AEMO interventions or directions currently apply within VIC1 itself, though SA region voltage-control directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units remain relevant for interconnector flow watchers given VIC-SA transfer linkages.