Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $109.48/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from a low of $12.50/MWh around 23:45-23:50 to a peak of $163.24/MWh at 17:15. Demand has climbed to 6,037 MW as the morning ramp builds, up from the overnight trough near 4,630 MW in the early evening period. The price path has been volatile through the session — a sharp dip through midday and early afternoon (multiple sub-$65/MWh intervals) gave way to renewed strength into the evening peak, consistent with the typical demand-driven pattern.
Generation mix is currently led by brown coal at 4,258 MW, the dominant source in the fuel stack, followed by wind at 1,221 MW and battery storage discharging 621 MW. Gas OCGT is contributing a modest 141 MW, hydro sits at 44 MW, and both solar and gas CCGT are at zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration is at 30.0%, having climbed steadily from an overnight low near 11% as wind generation strengthened. Carbon intensity reads 0.841 tCO2/MWh, down from an overnight peak of 1.04 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with the renewable share as expected.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to ease into the $10-40/MWh band through the early morning trough (00:00-06:00 AEST target times), consistent with low demand and available wind, before spiking sharply from mid-morning: forecasts show $170/MWh by 08:00, escalating to a cluster of $278-352/MWh across 08:30 through 13:00, driven by the demand ramp meeting tighter supply margins. Prices are forecast to ease back to the $103-157/MWh range through the afternoon and evening peak. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows overnight (01:00-06:30 AEST) averaging $12-34/MWh, each offering $318-341/MWh in savings versus peak-period costs for shiftable load.
On notices, AEMO has an active credible contingency reclassification in place for the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220 kV double circuit due to lightning risk, with no constraint sets currently invoked — this has cycled between credible and non-credible status several times over recent days and warrants monitoring given its impact on interconnector transfer capability. The South Morang-Sydenham 500 kV line has returned to service following a planned outage, with the V-SMSY constraint set revoked as of yesterday 12:20 AEST. No active market interventions or price reviews are currently affecting VIC1.