Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 26 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $285.80/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping an overnight ramp that saw prices climb steadily from a $118/MWh trough near 05:35 AEST through the $200-260/MWh band from 06:05 AEST onward. This is a sharp departure from the prior evening's pattern, where prices spent several hours in negative-to-low territory ($-3.50 to $30/MWh) between 15:00-16:00 AEST as rooftop and grid solar pushed into the market. Demand has climbed in lockstep, up from an overnight low of 4,470 MW to 6,602 MW currently, consistent with the cold morning — temperature sits at 6.7°C with heating demand at 11.3 and negligible wind/solar potential right now.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,383 MW, with batteries contributing a substantial 951 MW and gas OCGT adding 475 MW to cover the morning ramp. Wind sits low at 151 MW and hydro at 50 MW, while grid-scale solar reads zero, reflecting the pre-dawn timing. This mix pushes renewable penetration down to 5.2% and carbon intensity up to 1.11 tCO2/MWh, both near the low/high end of the past 24 hours — renewable share ranged as high as 35% overnight when wind was stronger, and carbon intensity troughed near 0.78 tCO2/MWh in that window. The swing illustrates the typical VIC diurnal pattern: coal-heavy, higher-carbon mornings giving way to solar-supported afternoons.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to ease to $70/MWh by 09:00 AEST and fall into single digits ($8-19/MWh) through the 11:00 AEST to 15:00 AEST window as solar generation builds — a pattern of near-zero pricing that's consistent with the forecast weak cloud cover (61% average) tempering solar output somewhat. However, predispatch flags a second price spike sequence later in the day, with forecasts of $135-170/MWh by 18:00 AEST, climbing sharply to $204/MWh by 19:00 AEST and peaking near $207/MWh around 22:00 AEST as evening demand returns without solar support. Traders should note the overnight low-price window (02:00-07:00 AEST tomorrow) offers the best load-shifting opportunity, with forecast prices of $9-15/MWh and zero carbon intensity flagged in the load window data.
On notices, VIC-specific items are limited to historical contingency reclassifications on the Eildon–Mt Beauty 220 kV lines (lightning-related, since cancelled) and a since-resolved inter-regional transfer variation on the South Morang–Sydenham 500 kV line, both from prior sessions with no current operational impact. No active VIC-specific interventions or non-conformance declarations are in effect today. Broader NEM notices — including SA minimum system load warnings for 30 August and NSW/QLD contingency reclassifications — do not directly affect VIC network security but are worth monitoring given interconnector linkages.