Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 28 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $114.80/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, easing back after touching $140.97/MWh at 18:00 AEST during this morning's demand ramp. The region has swung sharply over the past 24 hours — from sub-$5/MWh overnight troughs around midnight to a distinct morning peak between 06:00 and 09:30 AEST, when prices held above $118/MWh for a sustained two-hour block as demand climbed past 7,400 MW. That morning peak has since eased, with prices grinding down through the $90-130/MWh band into the evening.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,340 MW, comfortably the largest contributor against total scheduled output of roughly 5,254 MW. Wind is contributing 517 MW, batteries 338 MW, hydro 51 MW, and gas OCGT a marginal 8 MW, with solar at zero given the after-dark interval and gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at 17.24%, well below the mid-morning low of 9.63% recorded around 12:30 AEST when solar output and light winds left the region reliant on thermal generation, but improved from the sub-15% readings that persisted through the middle of the day. Carbon intensity is running at 1.0088 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of today's range — the intensity curve climbed steadily from 0.77 tCO2/MWh overnight to a peak above 1.08 tCO2/MWh mid-afternoon as coal's share of the mix increased and wind output stayed subdued.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price collapse overnight: forecast RRP falls to $29.78/MWh by 22:00 AEST, then into negative territory from 00:30 AEST through to roughly 06:00 AEST tomorrow, bottoming near -$7/MWh between 04:00 and 05:30 AEST as demand troughs and minimum-load conditions bite. Prices are forecast to recover sharply from 07:00 AEST, reaching $101-125/MWh through the mid-morning block on Sunday as demand rebuilds, before easing back into the $70-95/MWh range through the afternoon. These forecasts underpin the identified low-cost load windows between 02:00 and 07:00 AEST tomorrow, each offering upward of $128-132/MWh in savings versus today's peak.
No VIC-specific market notices are currently active beyond a resolved lightning-related contingency reclassification on the Eildon–Mt Beauty 220kV lines from 25 August, now cancelled. SA remains the focus of ongoing AEMO attention, with a forecast Minimum System Load MSL1 event flagged for 31 August and prior voltage-related intervention directions issued to SA generators earlier in the week — worth monitoring given VIC's interconnector exposure to SA, though no VIC transfer constraints are currently in force. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows cool conditions (7-14°C) with modest solar potential (6.1%) and negligible wind (0.4%), consistent with the low renewable contribution expected to persist into Sunday's morning peak.