Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 1 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $75.87/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, sitting near the top of an overnight range that swung from a peak of $76.13/MWh down to negative pricing as low as -$60/MWh during the 06:00-13:00 AEST low-demand window yesterday. Demand has climbed back to 5,393 MW, up from the sub-3,300 MW trough recorded around 12:00-13:00 AEST, tracking the typical morning ramp. The past 24 hours show a clear pattern: prices collapsed into negative territory for roughly seven hours overnight as wind generation and minimum demand conditions pushed the market into oversupply, before recovering through the evening peak.
Generation mix at 19:55 AEST shows brown coal supplying 4,026 MW, the largest single contributor, with wind at 1,161 MW and battery storage discharging 493.91 MW. Solar and hydro are negligible at this hour given the evening timing, and gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is sitting at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 29.15%, a marked decline from the 50-58% levels recorded through the morning and midday period, reflecting the loss of solar generation as the region moves into evening hours. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.8644 tCO2/MWh, up from lows near 0.54 tCO2/MWh overnight when wind and rooftop solar were carrying a larger share of load.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility today. Prices are expected to ease to the $38-65/MWh range through the next few hours before falling to near-zero and single digits from 10:00 AEST through to 22:00 AEST, consistent with strong rooftop solar output forecast given 65% average cloud cover and cooler conditions (11.3-16.5°C). A sharp price spike to $96.31/MWh is forecast around 18:30 AEST tomorrow evening, with elevated prices persisting from 17:00-20:00 AEST as demand ramps and solar output tapers — traders should watch this evening peak window closely. Wind potential remains low (0.8) for today's outlook, limiting overnight renewable contribution, though a stronger wind pickup (24.5 potential) is flagged for 5 September.
On notices, an automated constraint set (CA_SYDS_59A889E5) remains active on Victorian interconnectors (V-S-MNSP1, V-SA) to manage power system security, in place since 09:55 AEST with no end time specified — monitor for impacts on interconnector flows. A credible contingency reclassification on the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220kV lines due to lightning was cancelled on 25 August and remains inactive. Separately, AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention in SA from 10:30 AEST today due to voltage conditions, which may affect Victorian interconnector scheduling given the V-SA constraint linkage. No non-conformance or direction notices are currently active specific to VIC generating units.