Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 6 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $45.38/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well down from the overnight peak of $110.50/MWh recorded between 20:45 and 20:55 AEST yesterday evening, and the $106-110/MWh band that persisted through the middle of the day. Demand currently reads 5,451 MW, still building from the overnight trough near 3,660 MW recorded around 03:00 AEST. The past 24 hours have shown classic volatility, with prices spiking above $100/MWh through the morning and midday peak-demand periods (07:00-14:00 AEST band), then collapsing into single digits and briefly negative territory ($0.01-$0.67/MWh) during multiple overnight and evening troughs as wind output ran high relative to demand.
The generation mix at the most recent 20:25 AEST interval shows brown coal supplying 3,288 MW, wind contributing 2,142 MW, batteries dispatching 313 MW, and hydro adding 38 MW, with both gas OCGT and CCGT units and solar sitting at zero given the after-dark timing. Renewable penetration currently reads 43.11%, up sharply from the 21-25% range seen around midday when wind dropped off and coal carried the bulk of load. Carbon intensity has correspondingly eased to 0.694 tCO2/MWh, down from a daily high of 1.004 tCO2/MWh recorded near 11:00 AEST when renewable penetration bottomed out at 14.9%. This inverse relationship between wind output and carbon intensity has been the dominant driver of today's emissions profile.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep price collapse through the early morning, with forecast RRP falling to near zero and briefly negative (-$4.24/MWh at 04:00 AEST) between 00:00 and 05:30 AEST as low overnight demand meets strong wind generation. Prices are then forecast to rebound sharply from 06:30 AEST, climbing through $64/MWh by 07:00 and peaking near $110.50/MWh around 09:00-09:30 AEST as morning demand ramps into the low cloud cover, low solar potential conditions forecast for today (average solar potential just 3.7%, wind potential 6.8%). Expect a second elevated band through midday into early afternoon before easing toward $70-77/MWh by mid-afternoon and evening. Load-shifting windows show the 01:00-05:30 AEST period offering the best value, with forecast prices between -$4 and $7/MWh saving up to $114/MWh versus peak.
On notices, AEMO reclassified two non-credible contingency events in VIC1 this week due to lightning risk — the Yallourn-Rowville 220 kV lines were reclassified and subsequently cancelled, and the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220 kV lines remain reclassified as a credible contingency pending further notice. A non-conformance was declared against CROWLWF1 (22 MW) for the period spanning 05/09 11:55 to 06/09 06:45. A separate non-credible contingency event occurred at Newport on 04/09 (220 kV bus trip offloading the Newport-Brooklyn line), with AEMO confirming no load shedding and no reclassification required. No active directions or intervention events are currently in place for VIC1.