Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 5 September 2026
**Victoria spot price at $35.87/MWh as of 20:30 AEST, demand at 4,736 MW.** This sits at the top end of today's range — VIC has spent most of the day oscillating near $0/MWh or negative, including a sustained negative-price block from midnight through 07:00 AEST (troughs near -$32/MWh around 16:35 UTC/02:35 AEST) as low overnight demand met firm wind output. Prices only turned firmly positive after 18:00 AEST as evening demand ramped and solar dropped away, printing between $10-36/MWh through the peak.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows brown coal dominant at 3,831 MW, wind contributing 1,515 MW, batteries discharging 468 MW, hydro at 39 MW, and both gas OCGT and CCGT sitting at zero. Solar has dropped to nil with the sun down. Renewable penetration sits at 34.55%, down from a midday peak above 60% — consistent with the solar-to-evening-peak transition. Carbon intensity has climbed accordingly to 0.7985 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.477 tCO2/MWh around 09:00 AEST, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and emissions intensity through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight retreat, with prices easing to $10-14/MWh by 21:30-23:00 AEST tonight and turning negative from midnight, bottoming around -$6.5/MWh between 01:00-02:00 AEST tomorrow (6 September) as wind generation and low demand again dominate. The real story is tomorrow's morning ramp: forecast prices spike from $10.50/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $72-100/MWh through the 07:00-08:30 AEST window, climbing further to a peak of $111.98/MWh around 12:00 AEST midday before easing back to $65-75/MWh through the afternoon and evening. This trajectory reflects tightening supply margins as rooftop and grid solar output remains capped by cloud cover (62% average) despite reasonable solar potential (9.3%) forecast for the day.
On notices, VIC-specific items include a now-cancelled reclassification of the Yallourn-Rowville 220kV double-circuit contingency (lightning-related, cancelled 19:04 AEST) and an earlier non-credible contingency event at Newport where a 220kV bus trip offloaded the Newport-Brooklyn line without load shedding. A completed planned outage on the Hazelwood-Rowville No.3 500kV line has also been restored. No active directions or interventions apply to VIC1 currently — the live intervention events are confined to SA. Traders should note the load-shifting windows flagged for the 01:00-05:00 AEST period tomorrow, all showing negative-to-near-zero pricing with $113-118/MWh savings versus the afternoon peak.