Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 7 September 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $81.06/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, with demand at 6,551 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. This follows an overnight collapse to sub-zero pricing (-$5.00/MWh around 4:35am) as low demand near 3,600 MW met continued renewable and coal output, before the market surged through the 7-11am block, peaking near $157.71/MWh at 6:35am. The current level represents a pullback from that morning spike but remains well above the flat overnight troughs, tracking the typical demand-driven ramp pattern.

Generation mix shows brown coal dominating supply at 3,564.75 MW, followed by batteries at 944.7 MW and gas OCGT at 766.55 MW. Wind contributes 213.74 MW and hydro 34.93 MW, with solar negligible at 0.98 MW given the early hour and zero solar potential currently recorded. Gas CCGT is offline. Renewable penetration sits at 21.61%, well down from the 40-60% band seen through the overnight low-demand period — solar hasn't yet come online and wind output is subdued, consistent with today's forecast average wind potential of just 0.5%.

Carbon intensity is 0.8772 tCO2/MWh, elevated from the overnight range of 0.48-0.65 tCO2/MWh as coal's share of the mix has risen with the morning demand ramp and renewables have faded. This tracks the inverse relationship seen through the past 24 hours: carbon intensity troughed near 0.48 tCO2/MWh around midnight when renewable penetration peaked above 60%, then climbed steadily through the day, touching a high of 1.0124 tCO2/MWh around 7:25pm yesterday evening as renewables dropped to 10%.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing through the morning to $69-93/MWh into early afternoon, before falling sharply overnight — forecast prices for the 9pm-6am window range from $0 to $20/MWh, with a trough near $0/MWh around 3am. A rebound is forecast from 7am tomorrow, climbing to $73.68/MWh and then $100-117/MWh through the 7:30am-10:30am window, mirroring today's pattern. Notably, negative pricing is forecast for the 4:30pm-6pm window tomorrow (down to -$4.41/MWh), consistent with solar-driven midday softness. AEMO cancelled a Forecast LOR1 (Lack of Reserve) condition for VIC at 8:10pm yesterday, which had flagged a capacity reserve shortfall (1,155 MW required vs 1,025 MW available) for the 7:00-7:30am window today — that constraint is no longer active. A minor non-conformance was recorded for battery unit MRNBESS1 (-10 MW) yesterday morning, with no ongoing market impact expected.