Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 11 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $95.35/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from -$34.89/MWh overnight to $174.43/MWh during yesterday evening's demand peak. Demand currently reads 5,270 MW, well down from yesterday's evening peak above 6,800 MW. The past 24 hours show a classic pattern: prices collapsed to negative territory between 23:00-05:00 AEST as demand fell below 3,300 MW and wind generation covered a larger share of load, then spiked through the evening ramp as demand climbed and thermal plant set the marginal price.
Generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 3,834.66 MW, with wind contributing 696.89 MW, gas OCGT at 116.24 MW, hydro at 49.51 MW, and batteries at 34.53 MW. Solar output is negligible at 0.41 MW, consistent with early-morning conditions and current cloud cover of 77%. Renewable penetration sits at 16.51%, down sharply from the 30-34% band recorded through the overnight low-demand period — a function of both easing wind output and coal's fixed presence as demand ramps. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 1.0046 tCO2/MWh, up from lows near 0.80 tCO2/MWh overnight, tracking the inverse relationship with renewable share seen throughout the past day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price collapse ahead: prices are expected to ease to $86.33/MWh by 07:30 AEST, then fall into single digits and negative territory from 08:00 AEST ($10.65/MWh) through the early afternoon, bottoming near -$40.58/MWh around 13:00 AEST as demand troughs and wind/solar contribution rises. A secondary evening peak is forecast, with prices firming to $89-93/MWh between 18:30-21:30 AEST before easing again overnight. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow (12 September), with the deepest trough at 04:00-05:00 AEST averaging -$39.58/MWh — a strong load-shifting opportunity with zero carbon intensity forecast for that window.
On notices, VIC-specific items are largely administrative: a credible contingency reclassification for the South Morang-Dederang 330kV line was cancelled as of 15:00 AEST yesterday, and NSW-VIC interconnector negative settlement residue constraints have been triggered and cleared multiple times over the past two days, reflecting periods of interconnector congestion from negative pricing spillover. No active LOR (lack of reserve) conditions apply to VIC today, though SA's ongoing voltage-related intervention events (Torrens Island direction extended to 09:00-16:30 AEST today) bear watching given interconnector linkages. Grid stress score reads 80.1, elevated but not extreme, with price stability at 37.7 reflecting the wide daily price swings.