Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 10 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $100.50/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, tracking at the top end of an overnight range that swung from a peak near $113/MWh during the 6-9pm evening ramp down to negative pricing (-$8.01/MWh) through the 1-5pm midday trough on 10 September. Demand currently reads 6,281 MW, off its 7,124 MW afternoon peak but well above the overnight low of 3,622 MW recorded around 3:30pm AEST yesterday. The current price matches yesterday's same-period reading almost exactly, suggesting a stable morning ramp pattern with no unusual demand-side surprises.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows brown coal dominant at 4,144 MW, followed by battery storage at 673 MW and wind at 582 MW. Solar is negligible at 1.9 MW and hydro minimal at 6.5 MW, consistent with the overnight/pre-dawn timing of this snapshot — both gas OCGT and CCGT units are sitting idle at 0 MW. Renewable penetration reads 23.4% at this interval, well down from the 39% peak reached around 5-6am when wind generation was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.935 tCO2/MWh, climbing from a low of 0.735 tCO2/MWh in the early hours as coal's share of the mix increased through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trend through today and into tomorrow's morning peak. Prices are expected to ease to around $45/MWh by 9am AEST before falling into negative territory overnight (-$7.50/MWh trough around 1-1:30pm target time), then climbing sharply through tomorrow's morning ramp to peak near $118/MWh around 1:30pm AEST on 11 September. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows between 1:30am and 6:30am tomorrow, all forecast below $0.01/MWh with zero carbon intensity — attractive for flexible load or charging strategies, though the 5:30-6:30am window carries elevated risk given proximity to the morning demand ramp.
On notices, AEMO has been actively managing negative settlement residues on both the NSW-VIC and VIC-SA interconnectors through the day, with constraints starting and ceasing multiple times — the latest VIC-SA constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) commenced at 5:05pm and the NSW-VIC constraint ceased at 5:20pm yesterday. No active market interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently affecting VIC1 directly, though SA's ongoing voltage-support interventions involving Torrens Island units warrant monitoring given interconnector linkages. Today's weather outlook shows mild conditions (7.7-14.6°C) with moderate solar potential (18.4%) and negligible wind potential (0.2%), reinforcing coal and battery dependence through the coming trading day.