Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $104.30/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, sitting at the top end of a volatile overnight-to-morning trajectory. Prices were negative through most of the early hours (down to -$20/MWh around 12:50pm AEST yesterday's trade), before climbing sharply from the 06:30 AEST trading window as morning demand ramped from 5,660 MW to a daily peak near 7,540 MW around 08:35 AEST. Prices have since eased into the $67-95/MWh band through the day before firming again into the evening peak, tracking demand back up to 6,220 MW at the current interval.
Generation mix at 20:25 AEST (previous trading interval) shows brown coal dominating supply at 3,897 MW, followed by wind at 994 MW, gas OCGT at 392 MW, battery storage contributing 314 MW, hydro at 6 MW, and negligible solar at 0.35 MW given the evening timing. Renewable penetration sits at 23.45%, down from a peak of 52.65% recorded overnight around 06:25 AEST when wind generation was stronger and demand was lower. Carbon intensity sits at 0.894 tCO2/MWh, near the day's high — this tracks the inverse relationship with renewable share, having bottomed around 0.522 tCO2/MWh near midnight when wind output and renewable share were elevated.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility overnight, with prices expected to ease to $44.76/MWh by 21:30 AEST, then fall through single digits and into negative territory between 23:30 AEST and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, bottoming around -$8/MWh in the 03:00-05:30 AEST window as demand troughs. A sharp reversal is forecast from 07:00 AEST tomorrow, with prices climbing to $99/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $116/MWh around 10:00 AEST as morning demand ramps against limited solar output — tomorrow's weather outlook shows only moderate solar potential (9.3) and light wind (1.1) for Melbourne, consistent with the forecast price strength.
On market notices, the Dederang-South Morang 1 330kV line outage (planned 07:00-18:00 AEST yesterday) has been completed and the line returned to service, with the V-DDSM constraint set revoked. A VIC1 non-conformance was recorded for MRNBESS1 battery unit (-10 MW) on 7 September, since resolved. No active VIC-specific interventions or reserve notices are in effect currently, though a Forecast LOR1 condition flagged for VIC on 8 September was cancelled ahead of eventuating. Active SA region voltage-related interventions and directions to AGL's Torrens Island units continue but do not directly affect Victorian dispatch conditions.