Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $99.47/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking well above the volatile overnight range that saw prices swing from -$20/MWh in the early hours to a peak of $109.43/MWh at 06:20 AEST. Demand has climbed to 6,117 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough near 3,780 MW around 10:15pm AEST, reflecting the typical morning ramp. The past 24 hours have shown extreme price volatility, including sustained negative pricing between 8:35pm and 5:40am AEST as wind generation and low overnight demand pushed prices as low as -$20/MWh, followed by a rapid climb through the morning as demand returned.
Generation mix at the current interval shows brown coal supplying 3,638 MW, the largest single contributor, with wind adding 2,003 MW and batteries dispatching 408 MW. Hydro and solar are minor contributors at 5.9 MW and 5.4 MW respectively, with solar output limited by the pre-dawn timing. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is sitting idle at 0 MW. Renewable penetration is at 39.98%, and carbon intensity reads 0.7323 tCO2/MWh — near the upper end of today's range, consistent with coal's dominant share as wind output moderates from overnight highs.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning and into midday. Prices are forecast to reach $119.74/MWh by 8:00am, climbing to $135.90/MWh between 10:00am and 11:00am AEST, before easing to $105-120/MWh through midday and early afternoon. A moderate pullback to the $79-89/MWh range is expected by late afternoon (4:00-6:00pm AEST). Weather data shows limited solar potential today (2.8% average) under 83% cloud cover, with wind potential also subdued at 9.6%, which supports the firmer price trajectory as renewable supply remains constrained relative to yesterday's overnight wind contribution.
On notices, VIC-specific items are limited to a now-cancelled reclassification of a non-credible contingency event on the South Morang to Dederang 330kV line (cleared 11 September) and settlement residue constraints on the VIC-NSW and VIC-SA interconnectors that have since ceased operating. The more active notices concern SA1, including an ongoing AEMO intervention for voltage control involving AGL's Torrens Island unit (direction extended to 4:30pm today) and a forecast Minimum System Load event in SA for 19 September. These don't directly constrain VIC dispatch today but are relevant for interconnector flow monitoring given VIC's export relationship with SA.