Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 13 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $50.42/MWh at 20:30 AEST, holding within the $50-65/MWh band that's dominated the evening peak since 17:00. This is a sharp reversal from the negative pricing that persisted through the overnight period (-$16.54/MWh at the low, driven by minimum demand troughs around 3,000-3,500 MW between 01:00 and 05:00 AEST), before the morning ramp pushed prices through zero at 06:15 and up to a brief $63.77/MWh peak at 09:55. Demand has climbed steadily through the evening to 5,133 MW, tracking the typical Monday demand shape.
Generation mix at the current interval shows brown coal at 3,798 MW as the dominant source, with wind contributing 936 MW, batteries at 1,024 MW (discharging to meet peak demand), and hydro at just 6 MW. Solar and gas (both OCGT and CCGT) are sitting at zero, consistent with the 20:30 timing post-sunset. This mix reflects the pattern typical of a low-wind evening peak — renewable penetration has fallen to 34.12% at this interval, down sharply from the 55-62% range recorded overnight when demand was low and wind output was proportionally higher. Carbon intensity has risen in step, now at 0.8037 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low near 0.46 tCO2/MWh and tracking the day's steady climb from 0.52 tCO2/MWh at 06:00 through to a peak of 0.9812 tCO2/MWh at 18:00.
Predispatch forecasts point to an overnight easing before a sharp rise tomorrow morning. Prices are expected to soften to $10-20/MWh through the 23:00-06:00 window as demand troughs again, before a pronounced spike to $75-90/MWh forecast between 07:00 and 13:30 on 14 September — materially above today's morning peak. This aligns with tomorrow's weather outlook showing minimal solar potential (avg 0.1%) and low wind potential (0.7%) under 89% cloud cover, constraining renewable supply during that window. Traders should note the identified low-price load-shifting windows between 02:00-07:00 tomorrow, averaging $10.50-10.58/MWh with near-zero carbon intensity readings in the forecast set.
No VIC-specific market notices are currently active beyond routine settlement residue and interconnector items. The bulk of today's AEMO notices relate to SA region voltage support directions (AGL Torrens Island) and minimum system load conditions forecast for SA on 19 September — not directly affecting Victorian dispatch. One VIC-relevant item from 11 September saw the South Morang-Dederang No. 2 330kV line contingency reclassified then subsequently reverted to non-credible status, with no constraint sets currently invoked. Basslink control issues flagged on 11 September have since been resolved, restoring normal Tasmania-Victoria interconnector operation.