Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $89.58/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, easing back from an overnight peak of $118.50/MWh recorded around 18:00-18:15 AEST yesterday evening. Demand currently reads 6,087 MW, down from the 7,600+ MW peak seen mid-morning yesterday. Prices have been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from negative territory (-$5.69/MWh) in the early hours to triple digits during the morning and evening demand ramps — a pattern consistent with tight supply-demand balancing around solar output changes.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by brown coal at 3,810 MW, the dominant source in the state's stack. Battery storage is contributing 763 MW, gas OCGT 570 MW, wind 628 MW, hydro 49 MW, and solar just 6 MW given the early morning timing. Renewable penetration sits at 24.83%, which is well down from the overnight high of over 53% recorded around 00:00 AEST when wind generation and lower demand combined to lift renewables' share. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.8614 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.571 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship with renewable penetration through the diurnal cycle.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation ahead. Prices are expected to ease to single digits through the early morning trough (00:00-06:00 AEST), with forecasts as low as -$5.03/MWh around 03:00 AEST — a good window for flexible load. However, a steep climb is forecast from 07:00 AEST, with prices projected to reach $139/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peak near $169.27/MWh at 09:30 AEST, before moderating through the afternoon to around $79-90/MWh by late afternoon and evening. Traders should note this morning demand ramp carries material price risk given yesterday's similar pattern saw prices exceed $118/MWh.
On market notices, Victoria's own grid conditions are stable — the Rowville-South Morang No. 3 500kV line returned to service yesterday at 11:35 AEST following planned outage work, and the VIC-SA negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) has ceased operating. The more material notices concern South Australia, where AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention risk from 00:30 AEST today due to voltage conditions, plus a forecast Minimum System Load event on 19 September. Given Victoria's interconnection with SA, sustained SA intervention activity may affect Heywood and Murraylink interconnector flows and warrants monitoring through the day.