Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 18 September 2026
**Tasmania spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST**, deep in the trough of a volatile 24-hour band that has swung from an overnight peak of $270.04/MWh (forecast for 07:00 AEST) down to lows of -$36.24/MWh in the early hours. Demand currently reads 919.7 MW, having ranged between roughly 780 MW and 1,220 MW over the past day. Prices spent much of the evening of 17 September in the $50-90/MWh range before collapsing to sub-zero territory through the overnight low-demand window (00:00-06:00 AEST), a pattern consistent with strong wind output displacing marginal generation.
Generation mix is wind-led this morning: wind is contributing 427.3 MW and hydro 238.8 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at 0 MW. That puts renewable penetration at 100% in the latest carbon snapshot, and Tasmania's carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh — consistent with the trailing 24 hours, where intensity has hovered at or near zero throughout, dipping only briefly to 0.013-0.022 tCO2/MWh during two short mid-morning and dawn windows on 18 September when hydro/wind output eased slightly.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp, choppy trajectory today: prices are expected to spike to $270.04/MWh around 00:00 AEST (19 September) and again show elevated readings of $76-88/MWh through the mid-morning block (08:00-10:30 AEST), before easing back to the $30-40/MWh range into early afternoon and falling toward $0 to -$0.58/MWh by late afternoon and evening (16:00-18:00 AEST). This saw-tooth pattern reflects tight but fluctuating renewable output against demand ramps, and traders should note the load-shifting windows flagged for 06:00-08:00 AEST, where average prices near -$4 to -$12/MWh offer roughly $274-282/MWh savings versus peak.
On notices, two TAS1 transmission contingency reclassifications tied to lightning activity — Gordon-Chapel St 220kV and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines — were issued and then cancelled within the same day (17-18 September), indicating transient storm activity near these corridors with no lasting network constraint. No active AEMO interventions or direction notices apply directly to TAS1 currently; the ongoing SA region voltage-related interventions and minimum system load advisories (forecast for 19 September) are separate and don't affect Tasmanian dispatch. Weather today shows mild conditions (8-19°C), moderate solar potential (27%) and modest wind potential (1.8%), suggesting today's generation will lean on existing hydro storage and wind availability rather than fresh renewable ramp-up.