Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 17 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $92.04/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from -$8.41/MWh overnight (04:00-05:45 AEST, driven by strong hydro and wind output against low demand) up to $127.76/MWh during the morning demand ramp around 17:45 AEST yesterday. Demand currently reads 1,110.7 MW, up from an overnight trough near 813 MW. The pattern is typical for TAS1: negative-to-low pricing in low-demand overnight periods gives way to sharp price spikes as morning load builds and the region draws on dispatchable hydro to meet peak demand.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,067.2 MW, supplemented by wind at 433.9 MW, with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This puts total scheduled generation well above the 1,110.7 MW demand figure, reflecting net exports via Basslink. Renewable penetration is at 100% and carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with Tasmania's near-continuous run of zero-carbon intervals over the past 24 hours — the carbon history shows only brief, marginal upticks to 0.019 tCO2/MWh during the 16 September evening peak before returning to zero.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility through the day. Prices are expected to soften to the $30-46/MWh range through the morning and into early afternoon (08:00-11:30 AEST), before a forecast spike to $88.20/MWh around midday to 13:30 AEST. The evening outlook is sharply bearish, with predispatch showing prices falling toward zero and into negative territory ($-11.32/MWh) around 17:00 AEST tomorrow morning as wind and hydro again outpace demand. Weather data supports continued strong hydro availability, with wind potential at 14.3-15.8% today easing over the weekend as cloud cover remains near 97-99%.
On notices, the only TAS1-specific item of note is a now-cancelled reclassification of the Gordon-Chapel St 220kV lines as a credible contingency due to lightning risk (revoked 15 September) — no active TAS1 network constraints remain. The bulk of current AEMO intervention activity is concentrated in SA region around voltage control directions to Torrens Island, with no direct bearing on Tasmanian dispatch. Traders should note the load window analysis flags strong demand-shifting opportunities into the 07:00-08:00 and 03:00-05:00 AEST windows tomorrow, with forecast prices near $30/MWh or lower and zero carbon intensity.