Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $152.83/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, the highest print of the past 24 hours and well above the sub-$90/MWh band that dominated yesterday's evening peak. Prices have climbed steadily from a low of -$5.92/MWh overnight (00:55 AEST) through a morning shoulder averaging $85-100/MWh, before this latest spike. Demand of 1139 MW is tracking near the upper end of the past day's range (874-1293 MW), consistent with the morning ramp.
Generation is running at 1162 MW hydro, 208 MW wind and 29 MW gas OCGT, putting hydro at roughly 83% of the current mix and wind at 15%. Renewable penetration sits at 97.91%, with carbon intensity at just 0.0136 tCO2/MWh — Tasmania has recorded multiple stretches of 100% renewable supply and zero carbon intensity overnight and through the day, reflecting the region's hydro-dominant baseload backed by wind. The small gas OCGT contribution is the only fossil generation currently online.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further tightening through the morning and into the afternoon peak: prices are forecast to reach $123.70/MWh by 08:00 AEST, climbing to a forecast peak of $151.04/MWh at 09:30 AEST, and holding in the $140-146/MWh band from 10:00 to 11:30 AEST before easing to $99-106/MWh through midday. One forecast interval flags a sharp $320.04/MWh spike at 01:30 AEST tonight, worth watching for risk exposure. Afternoon and evening forecasts moderate to the $73-105/MWh range through to 18:00 AEST. Load-shifting windows show the best value overnight, with prices as low as $13.58/MWh between 23:30-00:30 AEST and $38.65/MWh from 00:30-01:30 AEST, both at zero carbon intensity.
On notices, TAS1-specific items are limited to two now-cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines, both reverted to non-credible status. No active TAS1 market interventions or constraints are in force. The bulk of current AEMO notices relate to SA voltage-support interventions and a forecast SA minimum system load event on 19 September, neither of which directly affects Tasmanian dispatch conditions. Weather today is overcast (96% cloud cover, 8.1°C) with light wind (6.1 km/h), limiting wind output near-term, though the outlook shows wind potential strengthening to 18% by 18 September.