Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at -$4.62/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 998 MW. The region has been oscillating between negative pricing overnight and sharp peaks to $85.22/MWh during the evening demand ramp on 12 September — that ceiling reflects the administered price cap behaviour seen repeatedly through the day. Prices troughed as low as -$15.01/MWh in predispatch forecasts and have spent much of the past six hours in negative territory as hydro and wind output outpaces demand, with the Basslink interconnector providing an outlet for surplus generation into Victoria when available.
Generation mix at the current interval is hydro-dominant at 343.76 MW, followed by wind at 217.76 MW and gas OCGT contributing 125.37 MW to cover the remainder. Renewable penetration sits at 81.75%, consistent with Tasmania's typical profile, though it has ranged between 71% and 90% over the past 24 hours as wind output fluctuates with the front moving through — wind potential is currently modest at 2.1 out of 10, with cloud cover at 77% suppressing any meaningful solar contribution. Carbon intensity is 0.1186 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the middle of its 24-hour band of 0.064 to 0.186 tCO2/MWh, with the lowest readings coinciding with the highest renewable shares around 09:00 AEST.
Looking ahead, predispatch forecasts show prices holding in deeply negative territory (-$15.01/MWh) through the early morning hours of 13 September before lifting sharply from 07:00 AEST as demand ramps into the morning peak — forecast prices climb to $27.96/MWh by 07:30, $50.14/MWh by 08:30, and plateau around $60-66/MWh through the late morning and into the afternoon, holding near $55-57/MWh through the evening peak to 18:00 AEST. This pattern points to a strong overnight arbitrage window: five separate low-price intervals near -$15.01/MWh are flagged as low-risk load-shifting opportunities, each offering roughly $81/MWh in savings versus peak pricing, with zero carbon intensity in those windows given the renewable oversupply.
No notices are currently active specifically for TAS1. The most recent AEMO market notices are concentrated on SA voltage control interventions and directions to synchronous generators, plus a now-resolved Basslink control issue (constraint I-CTRL_ISSUE_BL) that was invoked from 07:35 on 11 September and revoked the same evening once control functionality was restored — worth noting for traders tracking interconnector reliability, though it is not currently constraining Tasmanian dispatch.