Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 10 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $92.99/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, tracking near the top of a volatile overnight range that saw prices swing from -$8.44/MWh in the early hours to a peak of $102.76/MWh around 5:30pm yesterday. Demand has climbed to 1,168 MW, up from an overnight low near 800 MW between 1pm and 3pm AEST, consistent with the typical morning ramp. The past 24 hours show a classic Tasmanian pattern: heavily negative-to-near-zero prices overnight (00:00–06:00 AEST) as hydro and wind output outstrips low demand, followed by a sharp price escalation through the morning peak.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominant at 1,189 MW, with wind contributing 159 MW and gas OCGT filling 208 MW of the load. Hydro alone covers roughly 78% of total generation, underscoring Tasmania's reliance on dam storage to meet demand swings. Renewable penetration sits at 86.6%, easing back slightly from the 90%+ readings seen overnight when demand was low, while carbon intensity holds at 0.087 tCO2/MWh — near the lower end of its 24-hour range (0.063 to 0.167 tCO2/MWh), tracking inversely with renewable share as expected.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further climb through the morning, with prices expected to reach $90.74/MWh by 8am AEST before easing to the $45-65/MWh band through late morning as demand plateaus. The outlook then firms materially into the afternoon and evening peak, with forecasts showing $94-106/MWh through the 6pm-midnight window on 11 September, peaking near $106/MWh around 11:30pm AEST. Overnight prices are forecast to fall back into negative territory again from roughly 12:30pm to 2pm AEST tomorrow, with troughs near -$7/MWh, reinforcing the low-price overnight charging window flagged in today's load-shifting opportunities (-$1 to -$7/MWh across the 12:30-4:30pm AEST window).
On notices, the most relevant recent Tasmania-specific items relate to transmission line contingency reclassifications due to lightning around the Gordon-Chapel St, Farrell-Reece, Tungatinah-Waddamana, and Norwood-Scottsdale lines — all since cancelled and reverted to non-credible status. No active market interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently recorded against TAS1. Weather conditions show cold, calm conditions (6.2°C, 6.5 km/h wind, low solar potential), consistent with subdued wind generation contribution and elevated heating demand of 11.8, though hydro storage continues to absorb the bulk of the load-following role.