Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $94.72/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking well above the negative-to-flat pricing seen through the overnight trough, when prices fell as low as -$17.27/MWh between 00:00 and 06:00 AEST on abundant hydro output and soft demand. The region has swung through a wide range in the past 24 hours — from deeply negative overnight to a brief spike to $320.36/MWh around 17:55 AEST yesterday — reflecting the volatility typical of Tasmania's thin, hydro-dominated market as demand ramped through the morning peak. Total demand has climbed from a low near 900 MW overnight to 1,210 MW currently, consistent with the mid-morning ramp.
Generation mix is running at 1,161 MW hydro, 204 MW wind, and 157 MW gas (OCGT), putting hydro at roughly 76% of the current 1,523 MW output, wind at 13%, and gas covering the remaining 10%. Renewable penetration sits at 89.67%, and carbon intensity is 0.0672 tCO2/MWh — both figures consistent with Tasmania's typical position as one of the lowest-carbon-intensity regions in the NEM. Carbon intensity has tracked between 0.05 and 0.12 tCO2/MWh over the past day, moving inversely with gas dispatch during peak periods.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued firmness through the day: prices are expected to ease slightly to around $80/MWh by 07:00 AEST before climbing sharply toward $89-104/MWh across the 08:00-11:00 AEST window, peaking near $103.82/MWh at 10:00 AEST. Prices then moderate into the afternoon and evening, settling in the $72-80/MWh band from midday through to 18:00 AEST. Overnight tonight is forecast to revert to the now-familiar pattern of very low and negative prices, dropping to -$8.41/MWh around 03:00 AEST tomorrow, driven by low demand and strong hydro availability — offering a clear low-cost, low-carbon load-shifting window for flexible operations between 01:00 and 05:00 AEST.
On notices, TAS1-specific items are limited to now-resolved contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St, Tungatinah-Waddamana, Farrell-Reece, and Norwood-Scottsdale lines, all cancelled as lightning risk passed on 5 September. No active market interventions or directions currently affect Tasmania; the recent AEMO intervention activity has been concentrated in SA and VIC regions and does not carry direct implications for TAS1 dispatch today. Weather conditions — 8.6°C, 94% cloud cover, light 10.9 km/h wind — support continued strong hydro reliance, with solar potential negligible and wind contribution modest at present.