Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $14.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down sharply from the overnight evening peak that touched $135.93/MWh around 18:00 AEST on 8 September. The region has swung through an unusually wide band over the past 24 hours — from a low of -$15.01/MWh in the early hours to that afternoon peak — reflecting Tasmania's characteristic volatility around hydro dispatch decisions and interconnector flows via Basslink. Demand currently reads 1157 MW, near the upper end of its daily range, having climbed steadily since the low of 845 MW recorded around 03:40-03:55 AEST.
Generation mix is running at 594.86 MW hydro, 419.73 MW wind, and 124.26 MW gas (OCGT), totalling roughly 1139 MW of measured output. Renewable penetration sits at 89.09%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-wind dominance, and carbon intensity reads 0.0709 tCO2/MWh — among the lowest of any NEM region. Over the past 24 hours, intensity has ranged between 0.0511 and 0.0979 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with wind output and gas peaking support during periods of tighter hydro dispatch.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued softness through the morning, with prices tipped to fall to around -$6.46/MWh by 07:00 AEST and -$5.06/MWh by 07:30 AEST, before recovering to $51-68/MWh through mid-morning and settling in the $45-67/MWh band across the rest of the day out to 18:00 AEST. This pattern is consistent with strong overnight hydro/wind availability easing daytime price pressure, followed by firmer pricing as demand builds. Weather today is cool and clear, with a 4.6-12.6°C range, light wind potential (5%) and modest solar potential (8.2%) — conditions that keep hydro as the primary swing generator rather than variable renewables.
On notices, the most relevant regional items are historical: multiple lightning-related reclassifications of TAS1 transmission contingencies (Farrell-Reece, Tungatinah-Waddamana, Norwood-Scottsdale, Gordon-Chapel St lines) were raised and subsequently cancelled between 4-5 September, with no active TAS1-specific interventions currently in force. Active market intervention activity remains concentrated in SA1 around voltage support directions for Torrens Island, with no direct bearing on Tasmanian dispatch today.