Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 6 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $57.36/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, up from an overnight trough of roughly $2-15/MWh but well off this morning's peak of $98.43/MWh recorded around 20:45 AEST. Demand currently reads 1106 MW, tracking toward the top of its 24-hour range (850-1170 MW) as the evening peak builds. The price path over the past 24 hours has been a textbook Tasmanian shape: sub-$15/MWh through the early hours as demand fell below 900 MW, a sharp ramp from 06:00 AEST as demand climbed past 1000 MW, holding in the $80-98/MWh band through the middle of the day, then easing back through the afternoon and evening.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 958 MW, with wind contributing 414 MW and gas OCGT providing 124 MW of peaking support at the latest 20:25 interval. Renewable penetration reads 91.7%, and carbon intensity sits at 0.0539 tCO2/MWh — among the lowest of any NEM region, reflecting hydro's continued dominance of the generation stack. Carbon intensity has ranged from a low of 0.0532 tCO2/MWh in mid-afternoon to a high of 0.1628 tCO2/MWh around 02:25 AEST overnight, tracking inversely with hydro output share as gas peaking units picked up more of the load during low-wind overnight hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep fall overnight, with prices dropping into negative territory between 03:00 and 05:00 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$4.40/MWh) before a sharp rebound from 06:30 AEST as demand returns. The forecast trajectory shows prices climbing through $60-90/MWh territory from 07:00 AEST, peaking near $99/MWh around 09:00-09:30 AEST, then holding in the $70-95/MWh band through the middle of the day before easing toward $64/MWh by 18:00 AEST tomorrow. Low-price windows before dawn (00:00-05:00 AEST) offer the best load-shifting opportunities, with savings of up to $102/MWh versus peak pricing, though several of these windows carry elevated risk ratings given price volatility.
No active market notices specifically affect TAS1 today. Recent regional history shows several lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St, Tungatinah-Waddamana, Farrell-Reece and Norwood-Scottsdale lines through late last week, all since cancelled with no lasting network constraints. Weather conditions show 8.1°C with 93% cloud cover and light 12.2 km/h winds currently, with wind potential improving over the coming week — the outlook for 11 September shows notably higher solar potential (22.6%) under clear skies, which may ease midday price pressure later in the week.