Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 3 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $233.80/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, capping a sharp evening ramp that took prices from the $80-120/MWh band through the early evening to over $200/MWh in the final two intervals to 20:25-20:30. This follows a volatile 24 hours that saw prices swing from negative territory (-$9.26/MWh overnight) to a brief $220.42/MWh spike around 10:15 AEST yesterday, before settling into a $80-140/MWh range through the day. Demand has climbed to 1,123 MW, up from the overnight trough near 850 MW, tracking the typical evening peak pattern.
Generation is 100% renewable, with hydro contributing 1,042 MW and wind adding 406 MW against zero gas-fired output from the OCGT fleet. Carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the region's carbon profile through the full 24-hour history — Tasmania has held 100% renewable penetration across every recorded interval since yesterday afternoon. This reflects strong hydro storage levels and wind availability rather than any gas dispatch offsetting the mix.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility overnight before easing. AEMO's latest run has prices holding near $150-205/MWh through 21:00-22:00 AEST, dropping to $83/MWh by 22:30, then falling into the $30-60/MWh band overnight and through tomorrow morning. A pronounced trough is forecast from 12:30-13:30 AEST tomorrow, with prices as low as $0.16-15/MWh persisting into the afternoon and evening — reflecting continued strong hydro and wind supply against softer midday demand. Traders eyeing load-shifting should note the 10:30-12:30 AEST window tomorrow offers the best combination of low price (~$13/MWh) and zero carbon intensity, saving approximately $192-193/MWh versus peak.
On notices, AEMO issued and then cancelled a series of lightning-related contingency reclassifications affecting the Farrell-Reece 220kV lines, the Gordon-Chapel St 220kV lines, and the Norwood-Scottsdale/Norwood-Derby-Scottsdale 110kV lines over the past 24 hours — all have reverted to non-credible status with no constraint sets currently active. A separate inter-regional transfer limit variation remains in effect following an unplanned outage of the Tungatina 110kV substation on 2 September, which invoked the T-PMWA constraint set affecting the Tasmania-Victoria interconnector. No non-conformance declarations or market interventions are currently active within TAS1 itself.