Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 1 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $70.08/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of an otherwise volatile overnight range that saw prices swing from -$58.91/MWh in the early hours to an $88.24/MWh spike around 08:45 AEST yesterday. Demand has climbed to 1,161 MW, up from a trough near 850-940 MW overnight, consistent with the morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours the region spent extended periods in negative pricing territory (00:45-05:00 AEST), reflecting strong hydro output against soft overnight demand.
Generation is currently 100% renewable: hydro is contributing 1,135 MW and wind a further 355 MW, with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This gives Tasmania a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh and a renewable penetration of 100% at the latest interval — consistent with the pattern held through the entire prior 24 hours, where carbon intensity read zero across every half-hourly snapshot. The scores panel shows a renewable penetration score of 52 and carbon intensity score of 68.1, reflecting the scoring model's longer-window methodology rather than the instantaneous 100% figure.
Predispatch forecasts point to a choppy day ahead. Prices are expected to ease into the $58-70/MWh band through the morning peak (07:00-08:30 AEST forecast), then spike sharply to $82-91/MWh across 08:00-10:30 AEST target windows before easing back toward $25-60/MWh into early afternoon. From roughly 14:00 AEST onward, forecast prices collapse toward $0/MWh and turn negative (-$4 to -$7/MWh) through the 16:00-18:00 AEST window, indicating another period of surplus hydro/wind generation against low demand — a strong candidate load-shifting window, consistent with the load window data flagging 16:00-18:00 AEST periods offering $91-97/MWh savings versus peak. Wind potential is forecast to strengthen slightly today (9.4 average) with cloud cover at 83%, capping solar contribution.
On notices, the only Tasmania-specific item is a now-cancelled contingency reclassification from 21-22 August (lightning risk on the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana lines), with no other TAS1-specific constraints currently active. Broader NEM notices include planned AEMO MarketNet maintenance on 3-4 September (10:00-17:00 AEST, outage windows 10:00-14:00 AEST) which may briefly affect VPN connectivity for market participants, and ongoing SA region voltage-related intervention activity — neither directly impacts Tasmanian dispatch today.