Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 29 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $66.00/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking well below the volatile $80-105/MWh band that dominated Friday evening's peak but consistent with an overnight collapse into negative territory. Prices fell as low as -$35.16/MWh around 15:05 AEST yesterday during minimum demand conditions, before climbing back through the $60-90/MWh range as morning demand builds. Current demand of 957 MW is mid-range for the 24-hour window, which spanned roughly 775 MW overnight lows to 1,136 MW during yesterday's evening peak.
Generation mix is running at 1,163 MW hydro, 231 MW wind and 125 MW gas OCGT, putting hydro at roughly 77% of the current 1,519 MW output and wind at 15%. Renewable penetration sits at 91.76%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-wind dominance, and carbon intensity is 0.0535 tCO2/MWh — near the lower end of its 24-hour range, which peaked at 0.152 tCO2/MWh around 05:00 AEST when renewable share dipped to 76.7% overnight. The gas OCGT contribution is filling the gap left by lower wind output rather than driving major price moves.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to fall to $11-25/MWh through the 07:00-09:30 AEST window as overnight demand troughs, before a sharp climb to $95-103/MWh across 18:00-21:00 AEST (late morning to early afternoon) as demand firms and interconnector flows adjust. This mirrors yesterday's pattern of negative-to-low overnight pricing followed by a firm daytime peak. Forecast conditions show cooler temperatures (9.9-16.5°C), moderate solar potential and light wind (4.5 average), suggesting hydro will continue carrying the bulk of dispatch through the peak.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 today — the current AEMO intervention and direction notices are confined to SA region voltage support issues at Torrens Island. The most recent Tasmania-specific notice was a lightning-related contingency reclassification for the Tungatinah-Waddamana lines on 21 August, since cancelled, with no new network constraints reported for the region.