Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 28 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $103.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of $4-25/MWh reached between 09:00pm and 01:00am, and consistent with a pronounced morning demand ramp that pushed prices as high as $126.52/MWh at 08:00. Demand currently reads 974.58 MW, well off the 850-870 MW overnight low but below yesterday evening's 1,250 MW peak. The 24-hour trend shows the classic Tasmanian pattern: sub-$50/MWh overnight troughs giving way to $90-130/MWh morning and evening peaks as hydro dispatch responds to demand.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominated at 1,032 MW, supplying the bulk of the region's output, with wind contributing 364 MW and gas OCGT adding 125 MW to cover peak requirements. This mix puts renewable penetration at 91.78%, in line with the past 24 hours which has ranged narrowly between 81-93%. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0534 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of its overnight range — intensity peaked at 0.1223 tCO2/MWh around 11:30am AEST (11:30 UTC on the 28th) when hydro output eased and gas picked up more of the load during the demand trough, before falling back as hydro reasserted itself through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight price collapse, with forecast RRP falling to $26.89/MWh by 08:00am AEST, then into negative territory (-$7.16/MWh) around 02:30pm AEST as minimum demand conditions bite. Prices are then forecast to rebound firmly through tomorrow's morning peak, reaching $100-113/MWh between 06:00pm and 08:30pm AEST as demand climbs again — a pattern mirroring today's ramp. Low-price windows between 01:00pm and 04:00pm AEST offer the best load-shifting opportunities, with savings of up to $120/MWh versus peak pricing.
Market notices show no active constraints specific to Tasmania today; the most recent TAS1-relevant notices relate to lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines from 21-22 August, both since cancelled. Weather conditions show 10.8°C, 80% cloud cover and modest 12.1 km/h winds, with wind potential improving to 6.1% average tomorrow before a stronger wind pickup forecast from 1 September (10.8% potential) as a cooler, wetter pattern moves in — supportive of continued high hydro and wind contribution through the outlook period.