Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 27 August 2026
**Tasmania regional briefing – 06:30 AEST, 28 August 2026**
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.19/MWh, up from an overnight low of -$1.24/MWh around 15:10 AEST but well down from yesterday evening's peak of $269.19/MWh during the 06:35-07:00 UTC period (16:35-17:00 AEST). Demand is running at 1,195 MW and climbing into the morning ramp, consistent with the pattern seen over the past 24 hours where prices tracked from a $250+ evening peak down through single digits overnight (touching $0/MWh and briefly negative around 05:00-05:20 UTC) before rebuilding through the morning shoulder. The past day's price band has been wide — from -$1.24 to $269.19/MWh — reflecting Tasmania's hydro-dominant system responding to demand swings and Basslink flow conditions rather than any fuel scarcity.
Generation mix is hydro-heavy: 1,172 MW hydro, 262 MW wind, and 124.5 MW gas (OCGT) in the latest interval, putting hydro at roughly 75% of local output. Renewable penetration sits at 92.01%, consistent with the past 24 hours where renewable share ranged between 79% and 93% depending on wind and hydro dispatch. Carbon intensity is 0.0519 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of the past day's 0.047–0.134 tCO2/MWh range — intensity was highest overnight (00:00–05:00 AEST) when gas peaking made up a larger share of a smaller generation stack, and lowest through the morning and early afternoon as hydro output scaled with demand.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further easing overnight before a firm morning ramp: prices are forecast to bottom near $10.88/MWh around 16:00 UTC (02:00 AEST tomorrow) before climbing sharply through the 17:00-19:30 UTC window (03:00-05:30 AEST) to a forecast peak of $131.74/MWh, then moderating into the $107-$125/MWh band through the day session. Weather supports this: overnight is cold and clear (7.2°C, minimal wind and solar potential), with milder conditions and modestly stronger wind (2.8-5.6% potential) building over the weekend.
No active market notices apply directly to TAS1 today. The most recent Tasmania-specific notice was a 21 August lightning-related reclassification of contingency events on the Farrell-Reece and Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana lines, both since cancelled. Current active notices are concentrated in SA (voltage-related intervention risk flagged for 28 August, 10:30 hrs) and NSW (transmission line return-to-service), with no material cross-border implications for Tasmanian pricing today given Basslink flows aren't referenced in current constraint sets.