Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $48.10/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking well below yesterday's evening peak of $111/MWh but up from the negative pricing seen through the overnight trough, when prices bottomed near -$5.90/MWh between 01:00 and 05:30 AEST. Demand is climbing through the evening ramp, currently at 1169 MW and rising from an overnight low around 950 MW, consistent with the typical Tasmanian demand curve. Over the past 24 hours prices have swung from -$5.90/MWh to $111.07/MWh, reflecting the region's exposure to hydro dispatch flexibility and Basslink interconnector flows rather than thermal cost-based pricing.
Generation mix is running at 597 MW hydro and 352 MW wind, with zero gas-fired OCGT output recorded in the latest interval — hydro and wind are jointly meeting the entirety of scheduled generation. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with Tasmania's typical operating profile and confirmed across the full carbon history for the past 24 hours, which has printed 100% renewable and 0 tCO2/MWh in nearly every interval bar a brief dip to 96.6% just after 22:00 AEST yesterday.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory overnight before a sharp rise tomorrow morning: prices are forecast near $0-20/MWh through the 00:00-05:00 AEST window, then climbing to $62.89/MWh by 06:30 AEST and peaking at $102.07/MWh around 09:30 AEST as morning demand ramps against overcast, low-wind conditions (cloud cover 85%, wind potential just 4.3%). Prices ease back to the $20-35/MWh range through the afternoon before a modest evening uplift to around $36/MWh by 18:00 AEST. Load-shifting windows are attractive overnight, with the 03:30-04:30 AEST period offering the deepest discount at -$0.02/MWh average, a $102/MWh saving versus peak.
On notices, TAS1-specific items are limited to two now-cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines, both reverted to non-credible status. No active TAS1 market interventions or directions are in force; the current spate of intervention notices relates to voltage control directions in the SA region (Torrens Island, Barker Inlet), which do not directly affect Tasmanian dispatch but are relevant context for Basslink-linked traders monitoring mainland grid security.