Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 22 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $102.93/MWh at 06:30 AEST, running well above the negative-to-flat pricing seen through the overnight trough, when prices spent several hours between -$7.90/MWh and $5/MWh as demand fell below 900 MW. Prices climbed steadily from the 03:00-05:00 AEST low, breaking through $100/MWh from around 06:00 AEST as morning demand ramped past 1,200 MW, and have held in the $85-150/MWh range since, peaking at $152.34/MWh at 06:00 AEST before settling back near current levels. Demand currently sits at 1,138 MW.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,251 MW, comfortably covering local demand and supporting exports, with wind contributing 241 MW and a small 40 MW of gas OCGT rounding out the mix. This gives Tasmania a renewable penetration of 97.4% and a carbon intensity of just 0.017 tCO2/MWh — among the cleanest in the NEM. Carbon intensity has drifted up slightly from a flat 0 tCO2/MWh overnight (100% renewable) as the gas peaker unit picked up output to help meet the morning demand ramp, but remains negligible in absolute terms.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing back through the day: $91.94/MWh by 07:00 AEST, dropping to the $75-76/MWh band by 08:00 AEST, then falling sharply overnight to near-zero and negative territory between 10:30 AEST and 15:00 AEST as demand troughs again. A secondary evening peak is forecast to lift prices back to $57-89/MWh through the 17:00-19:00 AEST window tomorrow morning before easing again. Load-shifting windows with strong economics are flagged for 14:30-15:30 AEST ($0.03/MWh average, $92/MWh saving vs peak) and 15:30-16:30 AEST (-$0.05/MWh average), both coinciding with minimal carbon intensity.
On notices, Tasmania-specific activity has been limited to transmission line reclassifications: the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece 220kV circuits were both briefly reclassified as credible contingency events due to lightning activity overnight, with both reclassifications since cancelled as the lightning risk passed. Basslink remains under a technical transfer limitation (constraint I-VT_000, active since 18 August) affecting Tasmania-Victoria interconnector capacity — traders should watch this given its bearing on inter-regional flows and price convergence with VIC1. No active AEMO interventions are recorded for TAS1 itself; the current intervention and foreseeable-intervention notices relate to voltage issues in SA.