Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 20 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $39.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well down from the volatility seen through Wednesday evening when prices spiked to a peak of $374.26/MWh around 09:10 AEST as demand pushed above 1,250 MW. Overnight and into this morning, prices have settled into a much calmer band, trading between $30-90/MWh, with demand currently at 1,142 MW and climbing through the morning ramp.
Generation mix is 100% renewable this interval: hydro is contributing 1,186 MW and wind a further 302 MW, with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. Carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the carbon history showing Tasmania has held at or near zero intensity continuously since Wednesday evening — a run of over 24 hours at 100% renewable penetration. Hydro storage is clearly well-positioned to cover current demand without thermal backup.
Predispatch forecasts show a mixed day ahead. Prices ease toward $30-40/MWh through the next few hours before an evening lift to $88.24/MWh forecast around 10:00-12:00 AEST, then a sharp swing to sub-$11/MWh overnight between 12:30-14:30 AEST as demand troughs. A further afternoon rally to $60-70/MWh is flagged for the evening peak window (17:00-19:00 AEST) before prices collapse again toward near-zero ($0.04-4.20/MWh) in the 16:00-18:30 AEST period tomorrow — reflecting strong hydro/wind availability outstripping demand. Low reserve conditions flagged for South Australia in the MT PASA notice (July 2028) don't currently affect Tasmania's outlook, though the Basslink technical limitation noted on 18 August remains active and continues to constrain interconnector flows with Victoria, reinforcing Tasmania's reliance on in-region hydro and wind to meet demand.
Weather today is cool and largely calm — 5.8°C currently, wind speed only 10.1 km/h, cloud cover just 14%. Wind potential firms modestly over the coming week (peaking near 9.6% on 22 August), while solar potential stays negligible throughout, reinforcing hydro's role as the dominant balancing resource in the region for the foreseeable outlook period.