Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 19 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $75.73/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, sitting well above the overnight trough of near-zero and negative prices that persisted through the 10:30–15:30 AEST window (as low as -$5.92/MWh around 15:00 AEST) as low demand met strong hydro and wind output. Demand has climbed to 1,165 MW and is tracking upward into the morning peak, consistent with the steady evening ramp seen from 65-70 $/MWh levels an hour earlier. Over the past 24 hours prices have averaged in the $30-40/MWh band, with this morning's climb through the $55-75/MWh range marking a clear departure from yesterday's subdued midday pricing.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominant: hydro is contributing 867.6 MW, wind 358.95 MW, and gas OCGT 124.02 MW, for total generation of approximately 1,350 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 90.82%, matching the pattern of the past 24 hours where renewables have ranged between 83.9% and 92.3% depending on wind availability and overnight hydro dispatch. Carbon intensity is 0.0597 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of today's range — intensity peaked around 0.105 tCO2/MWh during the overnight low-wind period near 12:30 AEST and has since improved as wind generation firmed through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further climb through the morning peak, with prices forecast at $78.79/MWh by 08:30 AEST, $88.24/MWh by 09:00 AEST, and holding near $80-88/MWh through to midday before easing. The afternoon outlook softens materially, with forecast prices dropping to $40.22/MWh by 00:00 AEST tomorrow and down to the $14-27/MWh range in the early hours, reflecting overnight demand troughs and continued strong hydro/wind supply. Weather supports this: today's wind potential is low at 7.6 km/h current speed, but the outlook shows wind potential building toward the weekend, while solar potential remains negligible given cloud cover near 20-30%.
On notices, the Basslink interconnector remains under a technical limitation constraint (I-VT_000, invoked 07:00 AEST 18 August) affecting Tasmania's interconnection with Victoria — this remains active and relevant for traders assessing interconnector flow limits. No Tasmania-specific non-conformance, intervention, or reserve notices are currently active; other notices in the log (SA voltage directions, VIC1 contingency reclassifications, NSW transmission outages) do not directly affect TAS1 dispatch conditions today.