Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 26 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $258.64/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, capping off a steep evening climb from a $32.06/MWh overnight low and well above yesterday's negative pricing seen between 05:00-05:40 AEST (-$3.70/MWh trough) when minimum demand conditions pushed prices to the floor. Demand has climbed to 1,305 MW, near the top of today's range, and the price trajectory over the past four hours shows a clear evening peak pattern: $106/MWh at 14:00, rising through $130-190/MWh across the 19:00-20:00 window, then jumping to $258.64/MWh in the latest interval. This is a textbook Tasmanian evening peak, driven by rising demand into the dinner-hour period.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,477.87 MW, supplying the vast majority of output, with wind contributing a modest 16.98 MW and gas OCGT filling in at 124.11 MW to meet peak demand. Wind generation is negligible this evening given light winds (8.8 km/h current wind speed, 1.1% wind potential), which explains why gas is being called on to support hydro through the peak. Renewable penetration sits at 92.33%, and carbon intensity reads 0.0498 tCO2/MWh — both figures continuing a steady intraday improvement from a low of 79.73% renewables and 0.1317 tCO2/MWh recorded around 05:30 AEST when gas made up a larger share of overnight output.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility overnight before a sharp collapse: prices are expected to ease to $121.50/MWh by 22:00, then fall through the $40-70/MWh range into the 23:00-00:30 window, before dropping to near-zero and even flat $0.10-$11/MWh levels between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow — consistent with the low-demand overnight trough. From 07:00 tomorrow, prices are forecast to climb rapidly again, hitting $122-185/MWh through the morning peak and a further spike to $186.67/MWh forecast around midday, reflecting typical Tasmanian demand-driven price shape. Traders should note the load-shifting windows identified between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, with average prices as low as $10-12/MWh and savings of up to $220/MWh versus today's peak.
On notices, TAS1-specific contingency reclassifications from 21-22 August (Farrell-Reece 220kV lines and Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana/Tungatinah-Waddamana 110kV lines, both lightning-related) have since been cancelled and reverted to non-credible status, with no other active TAS1-specific market interventions currently in effect. Broader NEM notices affecting interconnector flows — including the SA minimum system load advisory for 30 August and ongoing NSW/QLD/VIC contingency reclassifications — carry no direct operational impact on Tasmania today but are worth monitoring for downstream price effects via Basslink.