Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $99.77/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that spanned $35-147/MWh over the past 24 hours. Prices have climbed from the $70-90/MWh band seen through the early morning trough and midday solar-driven dip (sub-$50/MWh between 11:00-15:00 yesterday) back up towards the $100 mark as evening demand builds. Demand currently reads 1,205 MW, up from a low near 970 MW mid-afternoon.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,182 MW, supplying the bulk of the state's output, with wind contributing 212 MW and gas OCGT adding 125 MW to cover the remainder. This mix puts renewable penetration at 91.8%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-wind profile, and carbon intensity sits at a very low 0.0534 tCO2/MWh — tracking in line with the past 24 hours, which ranged between 0.047 and 0.064 tCO2/MWh.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through today's morning and midday period. Prices are forecast to fall to $11-42/MWh overnight through to 06:00 AEST, then spike aggressively from 07:00 onwards, reaching $152.75/MWh by 08:00, $254.98/MWh by 08:30, and peaking near $318.86/MWh at 12:30. Elevated pricing persists through the afternoon before easing to $92.59/MWh by 18:00. This trajectory reflects tightening supply-demand balance through the trading day — traders should note the overnight window (01:00-06:00) offers sub-$25/MWh pricing, flagged as a low-risk, low-carbon load-shifting opportunity with savings up to $307/MWh versus peak.
On notices, an active reclassification affects TAS1 network security: the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana 110kV lines had a lightning-related credible contingency event declared on 21 August, since cancelled. No current active TAS1-specific market interventions or non-conformance declarations are in effect, though NSW1 has an active non-conformance notice for unit VP6 (-21 MW, 05:45-05:50 AEST) that could have minor flow-on effects via interconnector dynamics. No Basslink-specific notices are listed today.