Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 24 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $90.60/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking well above the overnight trough of sub-$10/MWh but consistent with the region's typical morning demand ramp. Demand has climbed to 1,175 MW, up from a low near 1,020 MW around 03:00 AEST. Prices spiked as high as $124.31/MWh at 06:00 AEST as morning demand built, following a volatile offshore-peak overnight period where prices briefly touched $4.66/MWh and $126.58/MWh within the same 24-hour window — a wide band reflecting hydro dispatch flexibility rather than fuel scarcity.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominated: 1,370 MW of hydro output against 124 MW of gas OCGT and just 13 MW of wind. Hydro is supplying roughly 91% of total generation this interval, consistent with Tasmania's typical pattern. Renewable penetration sits at 91.77%, with carbon intensity at a low 0.0535 tCO2/MWh — up slightly from near-zero overnight (0.00 tCO2/MWh for most of the 21:00-01:00 AEST window) as gas peaking capacity has come online to meet the morning ramp.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $87-101/MWh band through the next two hours to 08:30 AEST, before easing to $75-88/MWh into the evening. Overnight Wednesday prices are forecast to soften further to $62-75/MWh between 04:00 and 06:00 AEST, before another morning peak develops — forecast at $103-107/MWh between 08:00 and 09:30 AEST Wednesday. Cloud cover sits at 100% today with negligible wind (2.2 km/h) and zero solar potential, reinforcing hydro's dominant role in covering demand through the daylight hours.
On notices, the credible contingency reclassifications on the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines (issued 21-22 August due to lightning) have both been cancelled and reverted to non-credible status — no active network constraints specific to TAS1 at this time. No AEMO interventions or directions are currently active within the region; the recent direction activity affects SA voltage support only. Load-shifting opportunities exist overnight, with the 05:30-06:30 AEST window tomorrow offering the best savings potential at $60.97/MWh average, a $46/MWh discount versus today's peak.