Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 2 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $10.98/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well below the past 24 hours' average of roughly $35-40/MWh, though the region has swung wildly overnight — from a peak of $100.06/MWh around 21:10 AEST last night down to negative pricing (-$7.04/MWh) in the early hours and back up through a $60-75/MWh band during this morning's ramp. Demand currently reads 1,105 MW, climbing from an overnight low near 890 MW as the morning load-up progresses.
Generation is running on hydro and wind only: wind leads at 523 MW, hydro contributes 153 MW, and gas OCGT sits idle at 0 MW. That mix puts renewable penetration at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh for this interval, consistent with Tasmania's carbon profile through the entire past 24 hours — every reading in the carbon history shows 0 intensity and 100% renewables. Wind potential is currently assessed at 11.8%, with cloud cover at 96% suppressing any solar contribution, though Tasmania's grid mix doesn't rely on solar in any case.
Predispatch forecasts flag a sharp price escalation ahead. After a brief negative dip around 05:00 AEST (-$7.04/MWh) and 05:30 AEST (-$6.30/MWh), prices are forecast to climb steeply from 07:00 AEST ($109.94/MWh) through the midday peak, hitting $183.57/MWh at 12:00 AEST and holding in the $100-165/MWh range across the afternoon before easing to $77.40/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This trajectory reflects tightening demand against the region's wind-hydro supply base — traders should note the identified low-load windows overnight (00:30-01:30, 04:00-05:00, and 23:30-00:30 AEST blocks) as the cheapest dispatch periods, each saving $160-190/MWh versus the coming peak.
On notices, an unplanned outage at Tungatina 110 kV Substation triggered constraint set T-PMWA at 21:40 AEST last night, affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector equations — this may constrain Tasmania-Victoria transfer capacity through Basslink today and is worth monitoring for its impact on the forecast price spikes. Separately, AEMO's MarketNet planned maintenance on 3 September (10:00-17:00 AEST, with outage window 10:00-14:00 AEST) may briefly affect VPN connectivity for market participants; B2B VPN and IPWAN connections are unaffected.