Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 5 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $52.86/MWh at 20:30 AEST, up sharply from a negative-to-flat overnight band that dipped as low as -$15.01/MWh through the early hours and held near zero through the middle of the day before climbing steadily into the evening peak. Demand is at 996 MW, tracking below the 1,130-1,170 MW range seen overnight when hydro and gas ran harder to cover minimum overnight load troughs. The intraday pattern is typical for Tasmania: sub-zero and near-zero prices dominate overnight and midday as hydro output outstrips demand, followed by a firming trend from late afternoon as demand rises into the evening peak.
Generation mix at the current interval is hydro-dominant at 553.68 MW, with wind contributing 74.42 MW and GAS_OCGT filling the balance at 123.72 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 83.54%, consistent with the day's range of roughly 80-89%, with the lowest renewable share coinciding with the gas-supported evening peak. Carbon intensity is 0.107 tCO2/MWh, up from a midday low of 0.0688 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:00-09:25 AEST when hydro and wind covered nearly 90% of demand — intensity has been climbing through the afternoon and evening as gas output increases to meet peak demand.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight retreat before a strong rally tomorrow. Prices are forecast to ease to $15.10/MWh by 21:30 AEST tonight, turn negative through the early hours (-$6.84/MWh around 01:00-01:30 AEST), and stay soft into the pre-dawn period. From 06:00 AEST tomorrow (6 September), forecast prices jump to $80-90/MWh through the morning and climb further to a peak near $101.77/MWh at 12:00 AEST, before easing back to the $58-70/MWh band through the afternoon and evening. This is a materially firmer trajectory than today's midday trough, driven by rising demand and lower forecast wind potential (just 0.4% average tomorrow versus today's near-zero wind speeds of 3.9 km/h currently recorded).
On notices, three TAS1-specific reclassification events from lightning activity — covering the Gordon-Chapel St, Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana, and Farrell-Reece 220kV/110kV lines — have all been cancelled as of midday today, reverting to non-credible contingency status with associated constraint sets revoked. No active market interventions or directions are currently in force for TAS1. Traders should note the four identified low-price load-shifting windows between 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow, with average prices from -$6.84 to $5.42/MWh, offering material savings (up to $108.61/MWh) versus the peak before the sharp morning price escalation takes hold.