Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 7 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $73.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,182 MW and climbing into the morning peak. This follows an overnight trough where prices spent several hours in negative territory (down to -$15.01/MWh around 08:45 AEST yesterday evening) before a sharp morning ramp took prices from $20/MWh at 06:00 through to an intraday high of $141.14/MWh at 08:35 AEST as demand built past 1,240 MW. Prices have since eased back through the afternoon and evening, settling in the $65-85/MWh band for the past few hours — the current $73.10/MWh print is consistent with that late-evening range rather than signalling fresh tightness.
Generation mix is hydro-dominated: 1,146 MW of hydro, 182 MW of wind, and 208 MW of gas OCGT, giving hydro roughly 76% share of the current 1,536 MW output. Renewable penetration sits at 86.5%, and carbon intensity is 0.0878 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with Tasmania's typical profile and a clear improvement on the 0.13-0.15 tCO2/MWh range seen overnight when gas ran harder to cover the low-wind trough. Wind potential is currently weak (2.4% of capacity) with only 11.5 km/h wind speed recorded, so gas OCGT is picking up more of the load-following duty than usual this morning.
Predispatch points to a volatile day ahead. Prices ease to $62-83/MWh through the next few hours before falling into deep overnight troughs — forecasts show $20/MWh by 10:00 AEST tonight, dropping to near-zero and slightly negative through the 12:00-13:00 AEST window, with a trough of $0/MWh forecast around 13:00 AEST. A sharp reversal is then flagged for tomorrow's morning peak, with forecasts climbing to $89.56/MWh by 07:30 AEST and peaking near $105.62/MWh at 10:30 AEST on 8 September, before easing back into single digits and negative pricing again by late afternoon. This pattern reflects the low overnight demand floor (sub-900 MW) combined with strong hydro availability, and it creates a well-defined low-price window for flexible load between 02:00-06:30 AEST — average prices in that band sit at $10-13/MWh, a saving of over $90/MWh versus this morning's peak.
On notices, the only Tasmania-specific items in recent days relate to lightning-driven reclassification and subsequent cancellation of non-credible contingency events on the Gordon-Chapel St, Farrell-Reece, Tungatinah-Waddamana, and Norwood-Scottsdale lines — all now reverted to non-credible status with no active constraint sets. No current LOR, intervention, or non-conformance notices apply to TAS1. The active Victorian LOR1 notice for tomorrow's 07:00-07:30 AEST window has been cancelled and carries no direct implication for Tasmanian dispatch given normal Basslink flows.